OPIS Expands CAMIRO Forecast Suite with California CAR and Europe Marine CAP Carbon Price forecasts
[Rockville, MD – September 4, 2025] – OPIS, a Dow Jones company and leading provider of global energy pricing, today announced that the CAMIRO product has been expanded to include two new weekly carbon compliance forecasts: California Cap-at-the-Rack (CAR) Prices and Europe Marine Cap-at-the-Port (EU CAP) Prices.
California CAR Forecasts
The California Cap-at-the-Rack (CAR) forecasts evaluate the cost of compliance with California’s Cap-and-Trade Program for transportation fuels sold at the wholesale rack level. These assessments reflect Scope 3 emissions associated with transportation fuels and make the financial impacts of carbon compliance fully transparent to the market.
California’s cap-and-trade program places a limit on greenhouse gas emissions across multiple sectors, creating a carbon market for allowances that incentivizes emissions reductions. Alongside the state’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program, compliance costs have become a significant component of gasoline and diesel pricing in the state.
According to OPIS Carbon Market Report data, costs to comply with cap-and-trade for CARB reformulated gasoline (RFG) at the rack have climbed steadily since the program’s inception — rising from about 10¢/gal in 2015 to more than 30¢/gal by Q4 2023. The new CAR forecasts in CAMIRO provide market participants with forward-looking insight about these costs and understand their impact on fuel margins, pricing strategies, and ultimately what consumers pay at the pump.
Europe Marine CAP Forecasts
The Europe Marine CAP forecasts provide transparent daily calculations of the cost of burning one metric ton of marine fuel under the EU Emissions Trading System. Each assessment incorporates EUA allowance pricing, annual CO₂ emissions factors, and jurisdictional distinctions, ensuring precise insights..
EU CAP forecasts are published for HFO, LFO, MGO, LNG, LPG butane, LPG propane, and methanol, with coverage for both jurisdictional (intra-EU) and non-jurisdictional (EU and external) routes.
In addition to daily assessments, CAMIRO now also provides a downloadable Excel file with short-term forecasts, offering monthly average carbon cost estimates (€/mt) for the same fuels. These forecasts are based on OPIS’s weekly EUA short-term price forecast and Spot Market Pricing Methodology.
The CAP price reflects the cost of carbon under the EU ETS — the EUA price shipowners must pay per tonne of CO₂ emitted at berth or on covered voyages. Since January 2024, large vessels calling at EU ports have been required to surrender allowances for a growing share of emissions: 40% in 2025, 70% in 2026, and 100% from 2027. With EUA prices currently trading around €70–75/tCO₂e, this cost is becoming a critical factor in voyage economics, fuel strategy, and compliance planning. Understanding and forecasting these prices is essential for shipping companies to manage risks and remain competitive in an evolving regulatory landscape.
To learn more about OPIS’s new CAMIRO solution, please visit http://www.opis.com/camiro.
About OPIS
OPIS, a Dow Jones company, provides accurate pricing, real-time news and expert analysis across the global fuel supply chain, including the Spot, Wholesale Rack and Retail markets. OPIS and its brands, McCloskey, PetroChem Wire, Axxis and Chemical Market Analytics, enable customers to buy and sell energy commodities with confidence across the globe via easy access to transparent data, expert-level customer support, educational events and energy data solutions. OPIS assessments reflect confirmed bids, offers and trades reported by approved traders, brokers and electronic platforms. Full details about OPIS pricing methodologies are available at opisnet.com/about/methodology.
About Dow Jones
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