Buyers Weigh Alternatives As Brazil’s Polyethylene Duties Take Effect

Polyethylene (PE) market participants in Brazil said the market was finding a new equilibrium after the Brazilian government implemented provisional anti-dumping duties of $199/mt on U.S. resin and $238/mt on Canadian resin at the end of August.

“Imported product prices are going up due to these circumstances and are remaining very close to Braskem’s prices,” a Brazilian reseller said.

Traders had a variety of sourcing alternatives, including the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and China, as well as nearby markets such as Argentina, Mexico and Colombia.

Duty-free Egyptian and Israeli cargoes are currently some of the most cost-competitive import options, but supply from those countries is limited.

One analyst predicted in early September that Mideast supply would increase to offset any decline from the U.S. and Canada, along with some incremental volumes from Mexico and Asia.

“There should be sufficient freight capacity from the Middle East, though some vessel and equipment reallocation may be needed, which could lengthen lead times. Freight ex-Asia is indeed expensive at the moment, so Asia is likely a secondary option unless pricing spreads justify it,” the analyst said.

Even with the duties, U.S. producers could still be competitive in the market, sources said, as U.S. export prices have fallen by 2cts/lb or more in the past month.

U.S. export prices for most commodity PE grades have fallen into the low 30s cts/lb railcar FOB Houston, according to data from Petrochem Wire by OPIS, a Dow Jones company.

“The U.S. is setting the benchmark at $850-860/mt CFR plus $200 duty, so everyone is adjusting to that,” a trader said. “Brazil is buying less from the U.S., but still buying.”

The provisional anti-dumping duties could last up to six months.

In addition to the anti-dumping duties, PE buyers saw risk of further escalation in U.S.-Brazil trade tensions after the Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil this summer.

Brazil has yet to retaliate, but the uncertainty of trade talks was identified as another headwind for U.S. PE sellers in the Brazilian market.

Through the first seven months of 2025, U.S. PE shipments to Brazil totaled 841,066 metric tons, or 10% of total U.S. PE exports, according to data from the U.S. Commerce Department. That is down 106,020 mt (-11%) from the same period last year.

–Reporting by David Barry, dbarry@opisnet.com; Editing by Brett Ratchford, bratchford@opisnet.com