China’s June Solar Installations Hit YTD Low on Policy Rollout
China added 14.4 gigawatts of new solar photovoltaic capacity in June, the lowest so far this year and a 38.4% year-to-year drop, according to data released by the National Energy Administration.
The steep decline in solar installations follows the rollout of two new policy deadlines, which impacted the profitability structure of renewable energy projects, said market participants.
The 531 policy, which took effect on June 1, replaced the previous guaranteed feed-in tariff model with a requirement for new renewable energy projects to sell electricity on the spot market.
The 430 policy, effective May 1, requires new distributed PV projects to prioritize self-consumption, allowing only surplus electricity to be exported to the grid. Projects connected before April 30 may maintain full grid feed-in access.
Developers rushed to complete projects ahead of the new deadlines, leading to a surge in demand that was front-loaded. May alone saw 92.9 GW of new installations, nearly five times the 19 GW recorded in May 2024.
In the first six months of 2025, cumulative solar installations reached 212.2 GW, nearly double the 102.5 GW installed during the same period in 2024.
Reflecting this surge, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association or CPIA on July 25 revised its 2025 installation forecast upward to 270-300GW, from a previous estimate of 215-255GW.
Several market sources noted that the CPIA’s earlier estimate was overly conservative. Some industry sources now expect full-year installations to reach as high as 300-320GW due to stronger-than-expected installation demand in the first half of the year.
However, the outlook for the second half is uncertain. Discussions of upstream price hikes and speculation over the removal of solar export tax rebates have raised market caution, with industry sources expecting price support for downstream modules.
A source at a top-10 manufacturer noted discussions about raising downstream module prices by up to 10%. “I’m not optimistic buyers will accept those price levels, and most are still waiting to see if the market stabilizes,” the source said.
Another tier-1 manufacturer said, “I think the impact of price fluctuation on demand this year may be limited, as the industry is going through a structural adjustment.”
OPIS assessed the FOB China spot prices for TOPCon modules at $0.084/wp on July 22, up 2.4% from the previous week.
–Reporting by Brian Ng, bng@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com