S. Africa’s New Power Plan Aims to End Coal’s Dominance
South Africa’s long-awaited energy roadmap earmarks $130bn for 105 GW of new non-coal generation capacity by 2039, as the government looks to cut coal’s dominance in the country’s energy mix by more than half.
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s government has approved the much-delayed Integrated Resource Plan 2025, which guides regulators in the licensing of power projects over the next 15 years.
Electricity and Energy Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa unveiled the new roadmap on 19 October, describing it as a pragmatic plan that will ensure security of supply and unlock a new wave of infrastructure investment equivalent to nearly 30% of GDP.
“We are going to get cleaner, but we are not abandoning coal,” Ramokgopa said in a media briefing. “We don’t have a coal problem. We have an emissions problem.”
According to the plan, coal currently provides around 58% of South Africa’s generation capacity and will fall to 27% by 2039. But this is only because other energy sources will grow, with some 105 GW of new power generation envisaged to come online during this time.
The IRP makes provision for only a relatively small decline in terms of the megawatts produced by coal plants to 40.9 GW of installed capacity by 2039, compared with 45.3 GW currently. Eskom’s coal-fired power plants currently consume around 100 mt/y of coal, typically 4,800 kc NAR material.
The document also maintains an energy availability factor (EAF) of roughly 66-68% for coal-fired stations between 2025-2030.
Ramokgopa emphasized that there would be no abrupt exit from coal as the country will explore clean coal technology options – especially alternative solutions that are potentially cheaper and more efficient than Flue Gas Desulphurization, which removes sulphur dioxide from the exhaust gases of industrial processes. A demonstration plant is intended to be up and running by 2030.
The plan however is silent on the technical and financial scope of the clean-coal demonstration project, detailed timelines for each coal plant’s retirement, and the affordability of maintaining older plants amid tightening emissions rules.
Industry experts speculate that the plan signals government’s intent to modernize parts of the existing coal fleet rather than mothball them prematurely.
New Energy Mix
Of the total 105 GW of new generation capacity to be added by 2039, 34 GW is expected to come from wind power, 25 GW from solar, 16 GW gas-to-power, and another 16 GW of distributed generation (referring to a range of technologies that generate electricity at or near where it will be used). Battery storage will total 8.5 GW and nuclear 5.2 GW.
While officials see gas-to-power as critical to supplement coal in providing base load electricity, many foresee such projects as unlikely to come online anytime soon. Last month, the Supreme Court of Appeal put the brakes on Eskom’s 3GW gas-to-power project, ruling that the utility did not properly get feedback from all communities potentially affected by the project.
Nuclear power ambitions are also expected to face very long lead times.
“This proposed energy mix would generate extremely expensive power,” said Vuslat Bayoglu, managing director at Menar. “Let’s learn from China and build capacity from all energy sources, including coal. Only then can we match China’s cheap energy prices and give our industries a chance to compete.”
While some of the IRP 2025 projects may require government guarantees, the investments are not intended to be financed by the fiscus but by private sector funders keen to capitalise on these commercial opportunities.
Ramokgopa described the plan as “an engine for economic revival”, noting that energy expansion would attract new industries, create jobs, and strengthen grid resilience while supporting the country’s climate-transition commitments.
Environmental groups have warned that continued reliance on coal could hinder South Africa’s climate goals, but Ramokgopa insisted that coal will evolve as part of a balanced and reliable energy mix. “This is about managing change, not abandoning what keeps our economy running,” he said.