2026 Preview: Strong USGC Jet Fuel, Distillate Exports Expected to Continue into New Year

U.S. Gulf Coast refiners are likely to remain major exporters of jet fuel and distillates in the new year, following another big year in 2025.

The region’s refiners exported about 307.5 million bbl of distillates and 51.5 million bbl of jet fuel over the first nine months of 2025, according to Energy Information Administration data.

The USGC accounted for about 90% of total U.S. distillate and jet fuel exports over the period and distillate cargoes over the first nine months of 2025 outpaced the 2024 total by 6.7 million bbl. Over the same time, jet fuel exports from the region exceeded 2024 levels by 5.7 million bbl.

Latin America continued to be the primary market for U.S. distillate exports in 2025. Over the first nine months of the year, more than 231.8 million bbl were sent to Latin America and the Caribbean countries, EIA estimated. More than 70% of the region’s distillate and jet fuel exports were shipped to Latin America and the Caribbean.

And the region is expected to remain a major buyer of U.S. diesel as demand for refined products has exceeded domestic refining capacity. While the ramp up of Pemex’s 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refinery reduced Mexico’s imports in 2025, the country remained the largest importer of U.S. refined products.

More U.S. distillate and jet fuel volumes may find a home in Europe in the new year. According to the International Air Transport Association’s November Jet Fuel Supply Outlook, tighter refining capacity in the continent has left Europe “increasingly reliant on imports, and the recent intensification of sanctions
on Russian oil further amplifies this vulnerability.”

Europe in 2025 accounted for about 6.8% of Gulf Coast jet fuel exports and market participants believe favorable diesel crack spreads and the uncertain fate of efforts to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine should increase Europe’s appetite for USGC distillates.

Stable Gulf Coast refining capacity and a quiet hurricane season helped the region meet U.S. and international demand in 2025. Refinery utilization in the region rose in 2025, strengthening from a low of 79.3% in January to a high of 97.1% in August.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) average distillate and jet fuel inventories in 2025 exceeded those for 2024, according to EIA data. Weekly diesel inventory for most of 2025 averaged just over 42.718 million bbl/week, the highest average since 2021, while jet fuel stocks averaged 13.7 million bbl/week, the highest number since 2020.

LyondellBasell’s closed its 237,000 b/d refinery near Houston in February, but other refineries expanded capacity to fill some of the shortfall. Motiva completed an expansion of its Port Arthur, Texas, refinery to 654,000 b/d in February and Citgo plans to raise the capacity of its Lake Charles, La., refinery by the end the year by 3% to 829,000 b/d. Citgo is also planning to expand crude processing capacity at its Corpus Christi, Texas, refinery in 2026.

The strong refining capacity allowed product prices to remain steady in 2025, with Gulf Coast ULSD and jet fuel spot highs and lows at the narrowest spreads in six years. Spreads for each product remained at about 62cts from January through early December. The average spread in 2025, however, was about 15cts wider than in 2019.

The tighter price range with strong refining could signal that the market has finally shaken off the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and returned to balance.

Reporting by Reagan Pritchard, rpritchard@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeffrey Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com