Europe Faces Uphill Battle to Replenish Gas Stocks by Q4
European natural gas buyers faces an uphill battle in a competition with Asia to secure enough tonnage ahead of the fourth quarter this year, as inventories in Europe fall close to four-year lows, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) showed.
As of March 30, EU gas stocks were at 28.11% capacity or 321.1 TWh, data from GIE showed. That’s the lowest level since April 16, 2022.
Outside of the EU, gas stocks in the U.K. and Ukraine were reported at 36.12% and 16.18% capacity, respectively. Gas stocks in the Netherlands remain critical at 5.15%, the lowest of the member states.
Following the July 2025 amendment to the European Union regulation on gas storage capacities ahead of the winter season, stock replenishment has more flexibility. However, member states are still expected to hit a 90% filling target, but the new rules allow for a broader deadline of Oct. 1 to Dec. 1, rather than the previous hard Nov. 1 deadline.
There is also leeway on storage amounts, allowing inventories to be refilled only to 75% full. A 10% flexibility allowance was granted in case of difficulties when rebuilding storage, as well as a 5% allowance in the event of persistent unfavorable market conditions.
The sourcing of seaborne cargoes will be a competitive market this summer, as the conflict in the Middle East causes lasting damage to major infrastructure and disrupts supplies. Drone attacks on QatarEnergy’s infrastructure at the end of last week have rippled through the global market. The damage is expected to result in about $20 billion in lost annual revenue and could take between three to five years to fully repair.
Strikes at Ras Laffan have damaged two liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains, which together account for 12.8 million metric tons/year of production, as well as the Pearl gas-to-liquids (GTL) facility, a two-train facility of equal size producing 140,000 b/d.
The Ras Laffan complex hosts the world’s largest LNG export terminal, which accounted for 18.5% of global exports last year – shipping 70.1 million mt, data from shipping analytics firm Vortexa showed.
Asia is most exposed to lost tonnage from the Middle East, with 82.3% of all exports heading East last year. Asian buyers have already started to buy tonnage which would otherwise be heading to Europe, a competition which is expected to heat up during the summer.
Europe re-injection levels seen faltering
While Europe’s exposure to Middle Eastern tonnage remains small compared to Asia – 8.92 million mt in 2025 – its ability to compete against Asia for volume has not got off to the best of starts with re-injection levels stuttering.
To meet the 75% threshold EU stocks would need to reach 856.98 TWh, some 531.91 TWh more than current capacity. To reach this level, the EU would need to inject 2.91 TWh/d from April-September, compared to the five-year average of 2.86 TWh/d. Furthermore, to hit the 80% threshold, injection needs to average 3.22 TWh/d.
However, with around 16% or 12.8 million mt of Ras Laffan’s nameplate capacity not expected to return for three to five years, sourcing from other regions is likely to be competitive. This obviously does not factor in the fact that the Strait of Hormuz is all but shut, and the war between Iran, Israel and the U.S. continues.
From a pricing point, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) front-month Dutch Natural Gas Title Transfer Facility (TTF) futures contract close price has averaged €52.85/MWh between March 2-30 at 4:30 p.m. GMT, the equivalent of $18.12/MMBtu. By comparison, the same price averaged $11.16/MMBtu in the first 26 days of February before the conflict began.
Reporting by Jamie Aldridge, jaldridge@opisnet.com; Editing by Rob Sheridan, rsheridan@opisnet.com