CERAWeek 2026: Hormuz Closure Has Flipped Market Headwinds Into Tailwinds, ConocoPhillips CEO Says

HOUSTON — What a month ago appeared to be headwinds for the energy industry have turned into tailwinds following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and deepening conflict in the Middle East, ConocoPhillips Chief Executive Officer Ryan Lance said Tuesday at CERAWeek by S&P Global.

“You just can’t take 8-to-10 million barrels a day of oil and 20 or so percent of the LNG market off the world stage without having some significant repercussions,” Lance said. “Clearly the inventories are going to get dropped onshore, offshore and the curve is going to have to change its shape. It’s going to have to go from backwardation into contango.”

What appeared to some as a contrarian growth strategy four years ago is paying off for ConocoPhillips today, Lance said.

“We’ve been really busy over the last four to five years through the merger and acquisition channel, building the company we are today to build scale and scope and size and remain a diversified, independent (exploration and production) company,” Lance said. “I think leaning into some of these longer cycles … we see growing demand for a long period of time.”

Previous internal company projections settled on around 1 million b/d per year growth in demand, he said.

ConocoPhillips is partnered with QatarEnergy on LNG projects and has evacuated some employees from the region following the outbreak of war with Iran at the end of February.

“We’re obviously a big investor in Qatar, so a lot of my conversations with the (Trump) administration is really pleading to try to get extra protection around the … hundreds of millions of dollars of investment,” Lance said.

Energy security for the U.S. is more important than ever, Lance said, emphasizing the importance of the company’s projects at home.

The company’s Willow project in Alaska is about halfway complete, Lance said. The crude oil production project is expected to begin producing oil in 2029 with maximum output of 180,000 b/d.

In September last year, ConocoPhillips signed a 20-year LNG offtake agreement with NextDecade Corp. from a Brownsville, Texas, facility.

While some in the industry have been speculating about an energy production plateau, Lance said the U.S. doesn’t have a resource problem, but a permitting problem.

“The issue is not our electricity price is going to rise due to the result of increasing exports of LNG,” Lance said. “It’s really about getting the pipes and the wires connected into the right places around the U.S. The Northeast is a classic example. They’re burning fuel, for God’s sake, still to heat their homes during this winter, where the Marcellus Shale sits right there with
plenty of gas that you can move up to the Northeast. So it’s that connectivity problem, and it’s, again, back to permitting.”

Companies have a window of opportunity through June this year before the midterm elections come to the forefront and pressure bipartisan cooperation, he said.

CERAWeek 2026 opened Monday and concludes this Friday.

Reporting by Bayan Raji, braji@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com