OPIS Insights

Latin America’s LPG Import Reliance Hits Critical Point: Production Falls Below Demand

The Latin America LPG market is undergoing a significant structural transformation. For years, regional countries have juggled their strong domestic production capabilities with growing import demand. Our latest market insight report, featuring analysis from OPIS experts Priscilla Antunes, Jessica Marron, and Ron Nissimov, reveals this delicate balance has now decisively shifted.

The Decisive Shift in Supply

The decade between 2015 and 2025 clearly illustrates this pivot toward import reliance. In January 2015, the region produced 1,872 kilotons (kt) of LPG and imported 802 kt. By early 2025, however, regional production had fallen significantly to 1,431 kt, while imports rose to 1,580 kt. This stark data highlights the extent to which Latin America now relies on external suppliers to meet its energy needs, as supply growth falls short of accelerating consumption.

Propane currently accounts for the largest share of both production and imports, reflecting underlying regional energy demands.

Residential Demand and Global Price Drivers

The core of this demand pressure originates in the residential sector, which accounts for the majority of LPG consumption across Latin America. Consumption has steadily increased, notably accelerating in the last two years, largely due to infrastructure limitations. Natural gas pipelines often do not reach rural or remote urban areas, making LPG—which can be transported in portable cylinders and canisters—an accessible, and often subsidized, solution for millions of households.

Furthermore, with the United States supplying much of these critical imports, Mont Belvieu prices have become an increasingly influential public benchmark in the region. The analysis examines how U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) FOB premiums for spot cargoes represent the variable cost for loading slots added to the commodity price. For instance, in the past six months, USGC FOB premiums for full-propane cargoes averaged +5.08 cents/gallon for the prompt month-ahead loading period—consistent with the historical range mostly observed since 2019. These public market metrics underscore the strong linkage between global supply centers and Latin America’s domestic energy stability.

Key Structural Facts from the Market

  • Regional Production Hubs: Brazil is the largest LPG producer in the region, followed by Mexico, Argentina, Peru, and Venezuela.
  • Core Demand Sector: The residential sector remains the single largest consumer of LPG across Latin America.
  • Supply Dynamics: Propane holds the largest share of both overall LPG production and total regional imports.
  • U.S. Storage Levels: By late September 2025, U.S. LPG storage inventories surpassed 100 million barrels, marking levels 2.5% above the previous year.
  • Price Benchmarking: Mont Belvieu non-TET spot propane prices ranged from 66.125–70.375 cts/gal in September, while non-TET normal butane prices climbed into the low 90s cts/gal.

This comprehensive report provides the verified historical data, key consumption drivers, and essential public market benchmarks necessary to fully understand this structural supply shift.

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Tags: LPG & NGL