2026 Preview: Dangote, Dos Bocas Impacts Eyed in Gulf Coast Gasoline Market

U.S. Gulf Coast gasoline market participants say their key focuses in the new year will be the potential effects of increased production from Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote and Mexico’s 340,000 b/d Dos Bocas refineries.

The Energy Information Administration in July said operations at the Dangote refinery, as well as some issues at U.S. refineries in 2025, led U.S. crude producers for the first time to export more oil to Nigeria than the U.S. imported from the country.
Gross exports of crude oil from the U.S. to Nigeria in February averaged 110,000 b/d, while March exports averaged 169,000 b/d, according to EIA. U.S. imports of Nigerian oil averaged 54,000 b/d in February and 72,000 b/d in March.

The Dangote plant has a capacity of 650,000 b/d and began processing oil in January 2025, according to EIA. Dangote Group Chairman and Chief Executive Aliko Dangote in October said the company aims to expand capacity to 1.4 million b/d over the next three years, making it the world’s largest refinery.

Gulf Coast (PADD 3) market sources believe supply from Dangote will loom large in 2026. “I think the Atlantic basin supply picture improves a ton, I don’t think that necessarily keeps [Gulf Coast] barrels from leaving,” one source said of the Nigerian refinery’s market impacts. “But it should compress margins quite a bit…[and] could force some small refineries to close, but only ones hanging on by a thread already.”

Another source said Dangote could pressure Gulf Coast exports to Latin America, but may not have an impact on spot market trading given that the market is more U.S.-centric. “Overall, though, it means that there is much more competition in the Atlantic basin for exports, displacing PADD 3 to some extent,” a source said.

Gulf Coast exports have remained strong in recent months, with shipping data from Vortexa suggesting more than 2 million bbl of gasoline departed Gulf Coast ports on Nov. 11 alone, a three-year high.
According to EIA data, Gulf Coast gasoline exports averaged 737,000 b/d in September, well above the average of 662,000 b/d in September 2024.

Total U.S. gasoline exports are ending 2025 at close to the highest levels in about seven years. EIA estimated that in the week Nov. 28, U.S. gasoline exports averaged 1.246 million b/d, the highest since December 2018.

PADD 3 gasoline holdings are closing out 2025 at a healthy level. EIA estimated motor fuel stocks in the region were at 85.533 million bbl in the week ended Nov. 28, the highest since August. Stocks are also above both the year-ago number and the five-year average.

In previous years, stocks typically have risen from November to January. From November 2024 to late January 2025, for example, Gulf Coast gasoline inventories jumped from 79.198 million bbl in mid-November 2024 to 91.617 million bbl on Jan. 24.

Gulf Coast spot gasoline prices ended November at close to lows last seen in February 2021, largely because of weaker NYMEX RBOB contracts.

Further, a recent reported increase in output from Pemex’s Dos Bocas refinery could also play a large role in the Gulf Coast gasoline market in 2026.

Crude oil processing at the refinery averaged 194,800 b/d in September, 57% of capacity. That was the highest level since the facility was officially inaugurated in 2022, the company said. The September processing rate was also 46% higher than in August. Still, the facility has struggled to maintain output above 50% of capacity.

Even though utilization has increased in recent months, Dos Bocas has also had its share of problems this year, with several extended outages and continued underperformance. “They have ongoing risks such as crude quality, power reliability and logistics,” a source said. “It’s unlikely that they’ll get to their full capacity in 2026, but they are inching higher.” The source added, however, that Mexican fuel exports into PADD 3 will likely rise in 2026 on expectations of improved performance at Dos Bocas and a slowing Mexican economy. Further, the source said Dos Bocas is influencing crude oil markets by reducing the amount Mexican exports of Mayan crude to U.S. refineries.

In addition to Dangote and Dos Bocas, there are several other new refineries that could impact gasoline exports from the Gulf Coast. In Latin America, Curacao’s Isla plant is preparing to increase output, according to a source, who added that local authorities are waiting for a permit to reopen the 335,000 b/d facility. If that happens, it would affect refined product flows in the Caribbean region.

Moreover, although Brazil remains a key importer of petroleum products, it also is looking to modernize its refining fleet. Those potential upgrades would enhance yields of clean, low-sulfur fuels. There has also been a large buildup of refining capacity in the Middle East, which could further impact Gulf Coast
gasoline exports.

“Overall factors remain crude market dynamics and oversupply, increased capacity in the U.S. and increased refining capacity in the intentional markets,” a source said, adding that all the new projects and enhancements could weigh on margins and prices throughout 2026.

Reporting by Andrew Atwal, aatwal@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeffrey Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com