China’s October Solar Installation Slowdown Raises Inventory Pressures
China’s solar installations were weaker than expected in October, with industry sources expecting tepid demand to drive inventories higher and put further pressure on module prices.
The country added 12.6 gigawatts of new solar photovoltaic capacity in October, down 38% on year, according to recent data released by the National Energy Administration.
Market analysts now expect full-year 2025 installations to reach 290 GW-300 GW, slightly above 2024’s figure of 277 GW. The slowdown follows a record year-to-date low of 7.36 GW in August and 9.66 GW in September, down 55% and 54% year on year, respectively.
Despite the weak second half, China installed 252.9 GW in the first 10 months of 2025, up more than 39% year on year. The surge was front-loaded as developers rushed to grid-connect projects ahead of Policy 136, which shifts renewable energy projects from stable feed-in tariffs to spot market pricing.
“Demand has softened in the second half as around 200 GW of modules were already installed in the first half,” a downstream source said. In comparison, China had only installed around 102 GW in H1 2024.
Market sources expect a bearish outlook for 2026, with some forecasting a year-on-year decline of more than 20%, as developers pivot toward wind projects. Lower solar electricity prices have squeezed project returns relative to wind and coal.
EXPORT PIVOT AMID HIGH INVENTORIES
Sources told OPIS that spot prices are likely to weaken further as producers work through high year-end inventories. With domestic demand soft, manufacturers have increasingly pushed volumes into export markets to manage stocks and maintain utilization rates.
A top-tier downstream producer said module producers typically clear stocks at “slight discounts” near the end of the year, which “may cause prices to fall slightly”.
Strong export activity this year was also supported by front-loading buying from overseas customers amid speculation that China would cut its 9% export tax rebate. However, the policy — initially expected as early as the third quarter — has been repeatedly delayed.
China exported 70.4 MW of modules globally in Q3 2025, rising 25.2% from a year earlier, according to data from Ember. In the first 10 months of 2025, module exports reached 210.5GW, compared with 237.2 GW for the full year 2024, the data shows.
A top-10 module producer noted that even if the rebate is reduced or removed, the impact on manufacturers’ profitability may be limited because sales prices already include the tax component. If buyers do not accept high prices, manufacturers may still end up absorbing the cost, the source said.
Recent discussions indicate that the rebate adjustment may slip further, with the industry association now focused on using production and sales quotas among leading manufacturers to curb oversupply.
–Reporting by Brian Ng, bng@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com