China’s Solar Export Rebate Cut Could Lift Prices, Spur Q1 Buying
China’s move to remove export tax rebates for solar photovoltaic products is expected to raise export costs and support higher FOB price floors on downstream markets, with buyers front-loading first quarter 2025 procurement ahead of the policy’s implementation.
According to a joint statement issued by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on Friday, China will remove export tax rebates on PV and other products, including solar cells, modules and glass, from April 1. The change affects 249 products in total.
For battery-related products, covering 22 items, export tax rebates will be reduced from 9% to 6% between April 1 and Dec. 31, before being fully removed from Jan. 1, 2027.
The notice added that projects subject to consumption tax will not be affected by this change, while the applicable export tax rebate rate will be determined based on the customs declaration.
Beijing previously cut export tax rebates from 13% to 9% for a range of products on Dec. 1, including PV products, refined oil, batteries and mineral products. Export tax rebates for aluminum, copper and certain chemically modified oils and fats were cancelled.
Buying Expected to Front-Load
Market sources said the removal of PV export tax rebates will force manufacturers to absorb higher net export costs, potentially pushing up minimum FOB price levels. Several producers expect buying interest to improve in the coming weeks, as buyers seek to secure shipments ahead of the new export tax rebate policy.
“I am sure that buying activity will increase over the next few weeks, and prices should move higher with demand,” a top-10 module manufacturer told OPIS. “On the supply side, we are already seeing production cuts upstream, particularly in wafers and cells.”
The policy adjustment surprised parts of the PV market, as earlier expectations centered mainly on production and sales quota controls among major manufacturers to curb overcapacity, rather than a full removal of export rebates, producer sources said.
While rumors of the export rebate removal had been circulating since last August, repeated delays from an expected 2025 implementation had led some to believe it might not materialize at all.
Manufacturers and buyers are now expected to pull forward procurement into the first quarter of 2026 to secure cargoes before the rebate removal takes effect, potentially providing price support even as recent trading volumes have remained subdued.
“Business was very slow last week with almost no deal confirmation,” a Chinese cell manufacturer said. “Many projects were put on hold due to frequent price and policy changes. With the [export rebate] policy now confirmed, we hope to see new orders finalized this week.”
Beyond near-term pricing effects, market participants expect this policy to accelerate industry consolidation.
Smaller, financially weaker manufacturers that previously relied on export tax rebates to remain competitive may face greater pressures, while larger and well-capitalized producers are expected to be better able to absorb higher export costs, supporting a gradual rebalancing of the downstream market in the long term.
Inventory Overhang May Temper Demand
However, some sources told OPIS that the immediate demand response may be overstated. Many overseas buyers already increased their purchases last year in anticipation of the policy shift.
“Rumors about export tax rebate cuts have been ongoing since August last year, and overseas buyers already went on a big buying spree,” a downstream cell and module supplier said.
According to data from think tank Ember, China’s module exports from August to November 2025 were 88.2 gigawatts, almost 25% higher compared to the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, cell exports saw even more significant gains of over 137% year on year, with the August to November 2025 volume at 47.2 GW.
The source added that a large volume of cells and modules is currently stockpiled overseas because buyers were worried about a potential rebate reduction and moved to build inventory in advance.
The Chinese Module Marker, the OPIS benchmark assessment for TOPCon modules from China, rose 6.82% from Dec. 16 to $0.094 per watt peak FOB China on Jan. 6, with tradable indications between $0.093-0.105/wp.
Forward curve indications for OPIS FOB China TOPCon modules also strengthened. Q2 2026 loading cargoes were assessed at $0.095/wp, with prices between $0.093-0.096/wp, while Q3 2026 and Q4 2026 cargoes were at $0.096/wp, with indications between $0.093-0.098/wp.
—Reporting by Brian Ng, bng@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com