Cuba Fuel Shortage Puts Mexican Government in an ‘Impossible Situation’: Analyst
The Mexican government is facing an “impossible position” on Cuba as it is limited to sending humanitarian aid to the Caribbean country, while being unable to resume crude oil or fuel exports to an island running critically low on both, according to Ricardo Torres, a research fellow at American University.
Cuba became more dependent on Mexican crude after shipments from Venezuela, which had supplied most of the country’s oil needs, were cut off after an early-January U.S. military intervention led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Weeks later, the Trump administration issued an executive order threatening to impose additional import tariffs on any country that sent oil or fuel to Cuba. Mexico halted its shipments and has since sent only two vessels carrying fuel and other basic necessities, according President Claudia Sheinbaum.
“Countries are in an impossible position with respect to Cuba at this moment because the few that truly have the capacity to send shipments will want to be cautious given the situation that has been created with the U.S.,” Torres said.
Cuba last week said it was pausing jet fuel loadings for international flights until March 10. Torres, however, said it’s likely that that the ban will be extended given that it appears unlikely any other crude producing countries will export to Cuba.
Sheinbaum said that commercial flights from Mexico to the island were so far unaffected by the refueling ban.
Torres said Cuba used about 100,000 b/d of fuels, primarily diesel, for power generation and rail transportation. About 60% of that demand was supplied by imports.
Venezuela had been supplying Cuba with 30,000 to 35,000 b/d, according to Reuters estimates.
Mexican authorities have been reluctant to offer much detail, but Pemex Chief Executive Víctor Rodríguez Padilla last week said Mexico sold $495 billion worth of crude to Cuba in 2025.
In a recent filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Pemex said that over the first nine months of 2025, it sent 17,200 b/d of oil to Cuba, or about 3.3% of the state-owned oil company’s exports.
The International Energy Agency estimated that Cuba’s crude production fell by 51% from between 2003 and 2023 to roughly 35,000 b/d, while refining throughput fell to about 25,700 b/d in 2023.
The Cuban government has suspended retail diesel sales and begun rationing. It is also promoting remote work and reducing the workweek to four days in an effort to conserve fuel, Torres said.
Cuba’s official newspaper Granma on Wednesday reported that in some cities, authorities are using electric tricycles to transport hospital patients. The fuel shortage also led Sherritt International on Tuesday to say it was suspending nickel and cobalt mining operations in Cuba.
“The truth is that the situation is difficult in any case, how long can a country survive even with humanitarian aid?” Torres added.
Vessel tracking data from Vortexa reviewed by OPIS this week showed no indication of fuel tankers from any country heading to the island.
Torres said the overarching goal of the U.S may be to force the island to negotiate in exchange for regime change, something Torres called “unacceptable terms for Cuba.”
“Whether they will be successful or not, we don’t know. Fourteen U.S. presidents have tried before,” he said.
Sheinbaum on Wednesday said Mexico had offered to mediate talks between the U.S and Cuba, but added that would depend on both sides’ willingness to engage.
“All eyes are on Cuba waiting to see whether there will be any shipments, whether it will be Russia or Mexico,” Torres said.
Reporting by José Luis Adriano, jadriano@opisnet.com; Editing by Karla Omaña, komana@opisnet.com and Jeffrey Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com