Hormuz Closure Poses Direct Threat to Europe’s Jet Fuel Supply Security
The U.S.-Israel war on Iran has triggered a massive rally in the European jet fuel market as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz leaves Kuwaiti refineries unable to export their production out of the region.
In recent years, Kuwait has become the largest supplier of jet fuel to Europe, particularly since the commissioning of the 615,000 barrels/day Al-Zour refinery. In 2025, the EU and the U.K. imported 9.7 million metric tons of jet fuel from Kuwait, 36% of the region’s total consumption. Now, these flows have been effectively blocked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“For now, Kuwait is not able to get the product out. So I expect run cuts or shut downs,” a source said.
Vortexa’s analyst Mick Strautmann told OPIS that Northwest Europe (NWE) is highly dependent on the wider Middle East Gulf region for jet fuel supplies. “The strongest expected impact on product cracks would likely be NWE jet, followed by NWE diesel,” Strautmann said.
On Monday, the first trading session since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, the jet fuel crack in Northwest Europe surged $16.98/barrel to $49.17/bbl. This is the highest since January 2023 — just as the EU ban on Russian oil products was about to start.
According to Kpler, jet fuel supplies face physical disruption in the near term.
“Any sustained disruption to Strait transit will translate directly into European aviation fuel supply tightening. The market has learned from June 2025 that the jet crack can remain elevated for weeks once a genuine supply shortage emerges,” the shiptracking company said.
Impact widens as conflict escalates
But the impact on jet fuel and other refined oil products goes beyond the closure of the Hormuz Strait, with Saudi Arabia shutting the 550,000 b/d Ras Tanura refinery after a drone attack, the U.A.E. reporting a major fire at the Fujairah oil export hub, and tanker freight rates skyrocketing across the board. Moreover, Asian refiners are considering run cuts of up to 30% due to difficulty accessing crude, according to DNB Carnegie.
“Alternatives look quite limited, given refiners in the East of Suez would likely have to reduce runs and have lower products available for long-haul exports,” Mick Strautmann said. “The key question is when do vessels re-establish export flows,” said Alan Gelder, SVP of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie.
“No doubt, tanker rates and insurance will increase dramatically, but these costs would only be a small part of the oil price impact associated with a
curtailment of oil flows if they last for more than a few days,” Gelder said.
The front-month European Low Sulfur Gasoil futures contract was trading at $1,000/mt on Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. GMT Tuesday according to data from the Intercontinental Exchange. This is the highest since Autumn 2023, and compares with recent lows of just over $600/mt at the beginning of January, according to OPIS analysis of the data.
Reporting by Jaime Llinares Taboada, jllinares@opisnet.com