Market Share Shifts while Higher Gasoline Prices Persist

Last month’s OPIS RetailCents LinkedIn Newsletter focused on the sharp increase in retail unleaded gasoline prices following the start of the conflict with Iran on February 28, 2026. With national average pump prices remaining fairly consistently above $4/gal, the next area of interest becomes whether sustained higher prices influence where consumers choose to fill their tanks. Using visit count data available through OPIS’ AnalyticsPro, this analysis compares brand market share during the first three weeks of February 2026, just before the start of the conflict and the resulting increased pump prices, against the first three weeks of April, 2026. The result is a recognition of which brands gained ground as prices remained elevated.

Just as importantly, the analysis pairs those market share shifts with changes in price differential. Price differentials, which are calculated at the ZIP code level to account for localized market conditions, take the average price for the brand being analyzed and then compare that to the average price for all other stations in the ZIP code. That data is then rolled up to the selected geographic region. Comparing market share fluctuations against price differentials helps to understand if relative pricing strategy may have helped drive market share gains.

National
Before reviewing the data, this writer’s expectation was fairly straightforward: big-box and grocery retailers, which often compete with more aggressive pricing, would be among the biggest beneficiaries as consumers became more price sensitive. The national results only partially supported that prediction. Buc-ee’s, which operates more similarly to a big-box or grocery retailer than a traditional convenience chain, posted the largest national market share gain at 0.10%, while Walmart showed a gain of 0.06%. At the same time, 7-Eleven gained 0.05% alongside very little movement in price differential, and Sheetz gained 0.03% despite maintaining a positive price differential during both periods. That premium, however, narrowed from roughly 4 cents in February to about 1.5 cents in April.

Mid-Atlantic
Regional results told an even more nuanced story. In the Mid-Atlantic, 7-Eleven stood out with a sizable 0.31% market share gain despite staying close to a price differential of zero. Sheetz also gained share in the region and held nearly 10% total market share in April, while Walmart added market share even as its price differential increased.

New England
New England showed some of the largest shifts overall, led by BJ’s with a 0.44% gain and Cumberland with a 0.32% increase. Both brands paired strong market share growth with pricing that remained consistently aggressive relative to their surrounding competition, although BJ’s was notably more aggressive, averaging more than 20 cents below the market during both timeframes.

Great Lakes
Here, the relationship between pricing and market share growth was less direct. In fact, none of the top five market share gainers were big-box or grocery chains, and several of the strongest gainers held positive or near-zero price differentials. Casey’s came out on top with a 0.13% gain, followed closely by Circle K and Speedway at 0.11% and 0.10% respectively.

Midwest
The Midwest showed a similar instance with the Great Lakes regarding Casey’s. The brand again showed the strongest growth between the two analyzed periods while holding a price differential of near zero. Unlike the Great Lakes, however, the remaining brands, including Walmart, showed substantially more aggressive price differentials.

Southeast
Buc-ee’s led gains at 0.25%, followed by Casey’s at 0.09%, and all top five gainers carried negative price differentials in April. Notably, none of the top five gainers were among the region’s top five brands with the greatest overall April market share.

Southwest
The Southwest came closest to the original hypothesis of big-box and grocery market share gains. Walmart, Sam’s Club, and Costco were all among the top market share gainers. Interestingly, Costco placed fifth, gaining just 0.02% market share, yet it priced exceptionally aggressively, moving from a price differential of -26 cents in February to -36 cents in April.

West
Western retailers showed a similar pattern to the Southwest, with larger grocery/big-box operators such as Safeway, Fred Meyer, and Walmart all posting strong market share gains while pricing aggressively. Even so, the data stopped short of a one-size-fits-all conclusion. Costco, for instance, held the largest overall April market share in the West at roughly 15% in April, yet it did not make the top five gainers list.

CONCLUSION AND FINDINGS
These findings suggest that higher pump prices did increase the importance of competitive pricing, but not uniformly across all markets or all brands. In some regions, aggressive price positions clearly helped brands capture additional visits. In others, brands gained share while pricing near their market’s average, or even at a small premium. This distinction matters. During periods of elevated fuel prices, market share fluctuations are not driven by price alone, but also by how price interacts with brand strength, customer loyalty, and localized competitive dynamics.

Looking at market share alongside price differential through AnalyticsPro thus offers a more complete view of competitive performance, helping retailers separate broad market pressure from true brand momentum, identify where pricing strategy is supporting market share gains, and better understand which markets may be more influenced by factors beyond price alone.

Download the national and regional graphs and charts that show:

• Market share change by brand (first three weeks of Feb. vs. Apr. 2026)
• Price differential change by brand (first three weeks of Feb. vs. Apr. 2026)
• First three weeks of April 2026 market share, top 5 brands

Reporting by Ben Kaufmann, bkaufmann@opisnet.com