OPEC+ Members Agree to Increase Oil Output by Higher-than-Expected 206,000 b/d

OPEC+ member countries on Sunday said they would increase production by 206,000 b/d starting in April.

Despite the growing conflict between U.S., Israel and OPEC+ member Iran, the remaining producers–Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman–cited low crude oil stocks and a steady economic outlook for the decision.

The group begin unwinding earlier production cuts in April 2025, but paused further increases for the first three months of 2026. The 206,000 b/d increase was above the 137,000 b/d expected by analysts.

Despite the decision to raise output, OPEC+ said it would take a “cautious approach” and maintain the flexibility to pause or even reverse production increases if production if market conditions change.

The group also said it expects countries that exceeded their production quotas since January 2024 will “fully compensate” by adhering to the new targets..

The eight OPEC+ countries will meet next on April 5.

Kenneth Medlock, a fellow at the Baker Institute and the senior director of Rice University’s Center for Energy Studies, said global leaders in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Russia were already discussing the potential of expanding oil production even before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.

“There was already an anticipation, if you will, that the world is going to need more oil, and we need to be able to respond, particularly if Iran goes off,” Medlock said. He added that a disruption in f Iranian production would force other producers to make up that output.

A prolonged war between the U.S., Israel and Iran could lead to broad economic issues, according to analysts, who on Saturday said some shippers were already rerouting to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, which handles some 20% of global seaborne oil trade and 20% of LNG cargoes, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Even without a formal blockade, analysts said they expect tanker diversions and sharply higher insurance premiums will increase the delivered cost oil
significantly.

Reporting by Shaheer Naveed, snaveed@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeffrey Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com