OPIS Forum: China’s EV Growth Putting Brakes on Gasoline Demand
Electric vehicles are spearheading China’s energy transition, with the cheaper costs of electricity putting pressure on the growth of gasoline consumption , according to findings from Sinopec Economics and Development Research Institute, presented at the OPIS Energy and Chemicals Forum in Singapore on Wednesday.
Gasoline consumption growth in China is facing challenges due to “irreversible electrification trends”, said Yixin Xu, associate researcher with Sinopec EDRI. With EV penetration projected to surpass 50% in 2025, the country’s gasoline consumption is likely to decline to close to 80 million metric tons in the second half of this year, compared to 85 million mt over the same period in 2024, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center and Sinopec EDRI data.
Fairy Wang, vice president, Sinopec EDRI pointed out that in China, a full charge of an EV costs just 35-50 yuan ($4.92-$7.02), while refueling a car with gasoline costs at least 500 yuan ($70.22). EV charging infrastructure has further supported the new energy transition, as there are around 70 million EV charging stations across China, she added.
The Chinese research institute expects the total population of EVs in China to reach 44 million units and the number of gasoline-powered cars to peak by this year.
Based on Sinopec EDRI’s calculations, the number of EV cars in 2025 can at least displace 25 million mt of gasoline.
At the end of 2024, China’s motor vehicle ownership reached 453 million, with 35.83 million new motor vehicles registered as compared to 11.25 million new energy vehicles, according to data from China’s Ministry of Public Security. New energy vehicles include battery, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell EVs.
“Data strongly suggests that the combustion uses of petroleum fuel in China have already reached a plateau and that the potential for future growth may be very limited,” said the U.S. Energy Information Administration in a report on March 11.
The OPIS Forum in Singapore attracted more than 200 participants.
–Reporting by Thomas Cho, tcho@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com