Permian Basin Crude Production Expected to Grow 3.3% in 2026: East Daley

Crude output in the Permian Basin is expected to grow by 3.3% this year as producers respond to higher oil prices but continue to exercise capital discipline, according to a note Wednesday from East Daley Analytics.

The company said that based on an updated survey of Permian Basin operators, it expects output in the prolific basin to rise from an average of 6.82 million b/d in 2025 to about 7.05 million b/d in 2026. That’s an increase of about 223,000 b/d.

Most of that growth is expected to come from ExxonMobil, one of the most active operators in the Permian, the analysis said. East Daily expects the company’s production in the region to rise by about 108,000 b/d – or nearly 11% – this year. East Daley expects the company’s production to go from 998,200 b/d in 2025 to 1,106,300 b/d this year.

East Daley, however, also expects “a broad contribution from the next tier of producers,” with Chevron production in the region expected to rise by 2%, Permian Resources output to grow by 6%, EOG Resources by 4% and Matador Resources by 3.5%.

East Daley’s latest forecast comes as U.S. crude prices remain high since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to tanker traffic in late February following attacks by the U.S. and Israel.

The U.S. oil rig count has risen by 18 since late February and now stands at 425, with the count rising in each of the past four weeks, according to data from oil field services firm Baker Hughes.

U.S. oil futures prices have eased in the last few days due to expectations of a deal to reopen the strait. Nonetheless, West Texas Intermediate crude futures are still priced at about $90/bbl, still above the $86/bbl producers have said is needed to profitably drill new wells.

While oil prices are falling in expectation of a deal, analysts have warned it could take several months for global oil production and availability to return to pre-war levels.

Last week, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said it will likely take a year or more after the strait reopens for producers in the Middle East to restore production to pre-conflict levels.

Even if crude prices do remain elevated in coming months, Permian output is constrained by infrastructure availability in the region, East Daley said.

“Higher WTI prices could continue to move production expectations at the margin, but Permian operators are likely to remain disciplined until new gas pipelines create more room for growth in the back half of 2026,” the company’s analysis said.

Reporting by Steve Cronin, scronin@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com