OPIS Insights

Barron’s Senior Energy Writer Laura Sanicola and OPIS Chief Oil Analyst Denton Cinquegrana discuss what’s ahead for oil this week.

This week’s video discusses recent developments in the oil market, focusing on the recent US takeover of Venezuelan oil assets and its minimal impact on oil markets. Despite the dramatic geopolitical developments, WTI crude remains around 58 and Brent in the low 60s because many questions remain unanswered. On the fuel supply side, gasoline inventories are very comfortable, approaching all-time highs on the Gulf Coast, which keeps street prices stable during this typically weak demand period after the holidays. Diesel supplies are also adequate, though not as abundant as gasoline.

Transcript:

LAURA SANICOLA: Hi, everyone, and happy New Year. This is Laura Sanicola, author of Barron’s Energy Insider, and I’m here today with Denton Cinquegrana, chief oil analyst at OPIS. Denton, thanks for joining me.

DENTON CINQUEGRANA: Thanks, Laura. Happy New Year. Quick question, though. Is it too late in the year to say happy New Year?

SANICOLA: You know, like that Seinfeld episode, I I’m not gonna weigh in here because I don’t wanna land myself in any hot water. Think I’m allowed to still say it. So let’s start off with the craziness of last week. I mean, we have essentially, and by we, I mean, the US has essentially decided to take over Venezuela’s oil industry, and yet oil markets did not really move at all. Kind of break it down for us why that’s the case.

CINQUEGRANA: Yeah. Prices remain pretty steady. WTI is still in the high fifties, fifty eight ish. Brent, low sixties. So really hasn’t moved all that much since the events of of last week, probably because there’s more questions than answers at at this point.

If you look at some data from the energy information administration, there has been Venezuelan crude coming to the United States. In the past week, for the week ending January second, the preliminary data shows about a hundred and twenty thousand barrels a day. Now compare that to Canadian crude, which is about four point one million barrels a day. So obviously, a huge difference in the last kind of full month data we have on on crude oil imports was October. And during that time, about three point three, three point four million barrels a barrels total came in from Venezuela. So there has been some Venezuelan crude coming in. It’s much smaller than other locations, but nevertheless, there has been some coming in.

It’s gonna take a long time before Venezuela is back to its production levels from the nineteen seventies and nineteen nineties, if ever. I mean, it’s gonna take a lot of investment as as we all know.

SANICOLA: And so we do have a preliminary thirty to fifty million barrels that the US president says is being given or turned over by Venezuela to the US, which will then be resold to buyers in the US and abroad.

Presumably, those will land in the US Gulf Coast where there is a lot of refining capacity. How does that work? Practically, you’re the refining experts, know, or do the US refiners just exercise an option to buy it there? And you know, around what prices?

Is this a good deal for them? Are they short oiled? Are they drowning in oil? Let me know how it works.

CINQUEGRANA: Yeah. Well, I I don’t think they were necessarily drowning in oil despite the talk of the oversupply. I think oil inventories in the United States are are pretty comfortable. Maybe not super bloody or or really below water, but comfortable, I I think is the best way to describe it.

At the end the day, economics decides everything. If the price is right, you know, with all due respect to Bob Barker, you know, they’ll they’ll buy it. And a lot of these refineries on the Gulf Coast have that deep conversion capabilities that take advantage of this crude oil that’s really not super high quality. It’s very heavy, very sour, lot of sulfur.

It’ll need to be, quote unquote, for lack of a better term, extra refined to take advantage and to be able to make usable products out of it. So if the price is right, the refiners that have that deep conversion capacity very complex refineries, they’ll be able to buy it and have some pretty solid margins as a result.

SANICOLA: And of course, we can’t forget fuel because ultimately, the demand for crude oil across the world is directly related to the demand for for what it eventually turns into gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, other fuels. What recent data from early twenty twenty six do we have about where we are on the supply and demand for some of those key fuels?

CINQUEGRANA: Yeah. Well, gasoline, we have a lot of it right now. It’s winter grade gasoline, so it’s only gonna be around for a couple more months, but suffice it to say, gasoline inventories are more than comfortable, and I think that’s why you see gasoline prices on the street at what they are. The Gulf Coast, for example, is within a couple million barrels of all time highs, so plenty of plenty of gasoline on the Gulf Coast, and I think you could almost make an argument that refineries are running a little too hard.

This is a time of year when gasoline demand is soft, is very weak. This is usually the couple of weeks of the year where it’s kind of the weakest. The holidays are over, the bills are coming due, Cold weather, you just sort of cocoon at home in front of a fireplace if you have one, or you’re just under a blanket the whole time. But, yeah, it’s it’s that time where gasoline demand is is particularly weak.

Inventories are growing. We’re very, very comfortable on gasoline. Diesel, a little bit less so, but still, it it’s not like we’re we’re in severe supply deficits as we’ve seen at times between, say, twenty twenty two and twenty twenty five on diesel. But gasoline, more than comfortable right now.

SANICOLA: Well, thanks so much for breaking that down, Denton, and thanks everyone for joining us. We’ll see you next week.