OPIS Insights

European prices for imported solar modules have remained broadly stable through October. Yet behind the flat price trend, cost pressure is building across the supply chain, and the drivers of project value are shifting.

Record solar generation and high wholesale power prices are reshaping project economics. Developers are increasingly looking beyond module costs towards storage, grid access and market design.

At the same time, policy is becoming a decisive factor. National support reforms, European industrial policy and China’s proposed technology export controls are all shaping project timing.

Stable Prices Mask Rising Costs

Module prices in Europe have moved within a narrow range since mid-September. OPIS assessed Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) prices for imported TOPCon modules above 600 wp at €0.109 ($0.122)/wp on Oct. 20, a slight increase of 0.9% from the previous week.

Smaller-format TOPCon modules in European warehouses were assessed at €0.114/wp ex-works (EXW) Europe, reflecting higher logistics and distribution costs.

In China, the OPIS Chinese Module Marker (CMM) for FOB China TOPCon modules held steady at $0.107/wp.

This stability is notable given rising production costs. Higher silver prices have significantly increased cell manufacturing costs, but module prices have not kept pace, as manufacturers struggle to pass higher input costs on to customers amid persistent oversupply and weak downstream demand.

Freight is adding to the pressure. Container rates on the Asia–North Europe route rose to $3,442/forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) on Oct. 20, or roughly $0.008/wp. Mediterranean rates rose to $3,927/FEU, though still below levels seen earlier in the year.

For European buyers, this suggests limited room for further price declines. If cost pressure persists, upward price risk into 2027 cannot be ruled out.

Record Solar Output Reshapes Power Markets

Solar generation in Europe reached new highs in the third quarter of 2026. Spain, France, Italy and Portugal all recorded their highest third-quarter solar output on record, while Germany generated 31,538 GWh, also a third-quarter record.

Year-on-year growth was strong, at 26% in France, 25% in Germany and Spain, 13% in Italy and 12% in Portugal.

Despite this, average wholesale electricity prices exceeded €120/MWh in almost all major European markets. Italy recorded the highest quarterly average at €181.24/MWh, as higher gas and carbon prices, stronger demand and weaker wind generation pushed prices up.

Higher solar penetration is also creating new challenges. Curtailment is becoming a growing concern in Spain, and the value of solar electricity increasingly depends on when it is delivered, not only on how much is produced.

Storage Becomes Part of the Business Model

This dynamic is accelerating the shift towards hybrid projects. Standalone solar is becoming less attractive in several markets, while solar combined with battery storage offers greater flexibility to capture value.

Shared grid connections can also reduce balance-of-plant costs, and major module manufacturers are expanding into battery energy storage systems (BESS).

However, the transition is far from smooth. Several European countries still lack dedicated legislation and clear market frameworks for storage, while long lead times for transformers and battery cells are slowing project execution.

Grid access has become the main bottleneck. In the U.K., the storage pipeline exceeds 100 GWh, and the connection queue has been reformed to prioritise financially-backed projects. Planning consents can expire before projects receive a connection date.

This is increasing pressure on smaller developers, some of which may be forced to sell projects to better-capitalised players, such as Abu Dhabi’s Masdar, which has invested more than €11.5 billion in Europe.

Industrial Policy and Technology Control

European-assembled TOPCon modules were assessed at €0.246/wp, more than double the price of imported utility-scale modules. High production costs and competition from lower-priced imports continue to challenge European manufacturers.

Investment plans are nevertheless advancing. Plans for a 5 GW cell and module factory in eastern France are moving forward, expected to be operational by 2028, subject to financing and construction.

Policy can also support demand. France’s new rules on solarising outdoor car parks favour modules meeting technical, environmental and supply-chain criteria. However, the rules refer to modules assembled in the European Economic Area, which could support European assembly without creating equivalent demand for European cells and wafers.

Meanwhile, China has proposed adding 12 photovoltaic manufacturing technologies to its export control regime. The draft, published on Oct. 16, covers polysilicon, wafer and cell production, with perovskite tandem cells classified as prohibited exports.

The impact on Chinese module exports is expected to be limited, as the measures target technologies rather than finished products. However, they could make it harder for other regions to localise manufacturing with Chinese know-how, adding a new dimension to Europe’s industrial ambitions.

Policy Uncertainty Shapes Timing

In Germany, the proposed EEG 2027 reform is influencing investment timing. The draft would require larger new installations to sell electricity more directly on the market, rather than relying on fixed feed-in tariffs.

Some developers are bringing projects forward to secure current support terms, while others are holding back. Part of the current demand may therefore be brought forward from 2027 rather than reflect additional growth.

A Market in Transition

Europe’s solar market is entering a more complex phase. Module prices remain historically low, but the factors that determine project value are changing.

Rising production costs and greater pricing discipline suggest the period of steep price declines may be ending. At the same time, record generation and high-power prices are shifting attention towards flexibility.

Storage, grid access and policy design are becoming as important as module selection. Developers able to combine solar with storage and secure timely grid connections are likely to be best positioned.

For the European industry, the challenge is no longer only price competition. Increasingly, it is about building a resilient, flexible and investable energy system.