Base Carbon CEO Seeing “Green Shoots” in the CORSIA Market

Michael Costa, CEO of Canada-based project investor Base Carbon, sought to reassure shareholders with a bullish outlook on the CORSIA Phase I market at an investor town hall Thursday.

“We’re starting to see some real green shoots,” Costa said. “In the last couple of weeks, we’ve seen two off-screen trades within CORSIA. The first one [was] within a trading group that retires credits for a Japanese airline. Analyst estimates tagged [that trade] at roughly $9 million. And then, Climate Impact X, which is based out of Singapore, disclosed a $5.5 million deal for CORSIA-eligible units delivered in the current window.”

While APAC airlines have been faster to move on CORIA Phase I offsetting, western airlines were waiting on the outcome of the EU’s review of its emissions trading system, which is due by the end of June, Costa said. Part of the review will determine whether CORSIA is a sufficient alternative to the ETS and if the bloc will continue its exemption of international aviation under the scheme.

The prices of standardized CORSIA Phase I contracts have fallen over the course of 2026. The Intercontinental Exchange’s CORSIA Eligible Emissions Units Futures December 2026 contract traded as low as $9.75/metric ton last week, down from $16.75/mt in January. The December 2025 contract had traded as high as $19.50/mt at the end of last year.

Base Carbon, which has streaming agreements with numerous projects that are eligible, or are seeking to become eligible, to supply the Phase I market, has seen its shares follow suit. Its stock traded at 57cts on Thursday, down from 76cts in February.

“We don’t like what’s happening with the stock,” Costa said. “It’s very frustrating to us. But we also realize we’re running a multi-year duration private venture. Nothing fundamentally, in our opinion, has changed around the business. What’s changed is the airline’s ability to focus in the absolute short term.”

The US war with Iran has caused jet fuel prices to spike, forcing airlines to put CORSIA compliance on the backburner, Costa said.

The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation requires airlines flying between participating nations to purchase eligible carbon credits to compensate for emissions associated with international flights.

In the first quarter of the year, Base Carbon’s project partner Del Agua sold approximately 200,000 credits at a “sizable premium to the core and futures benchmark for the CORSIA Phase I price,” said Wes Fulford, Base Carbon’s president. After Del Agua’s revenue share and insurance costs, net proceeds came to roughly $700,000, Fulford said.

For Base Carbon, CORSIA is the target marketplace for the bulk of its inventory, but it isn’t the only avenue, according to Costa. The company also has the option of selling credits from its cookstove projects in Rwanda and Vietnam as Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes for countries to use towards their Paris Agreement climate commitments.

Base Carbon and Del Agua hold a cumulative 1.8 million credits from the Rwanda project in inventory, Fulford said. The project is expected to generate 2.6 million additional credits every 6 months. The 7.4 million credits issued to the Vietnam project were contracted for sale by Citigroup and the project is expected to generate 11 million additional credits over its lifetime, with an expansion option that would increase that figure to 16.1 million, Fulford added.

OPIS last assessed its CORSIA-Eligible Offset mean at $16 per metric ton.

Reporting by Jordan Laing, jlaing@opisnet.com; Editing by Henry Kronk, hkronk@opisnet.com