China July solar installations rise, outlook stays flat
China’s solar installations strengthened in July on both an on-month and on-year basis, but industry sources said the improvement does not translate into stronger underlying module demand, with the outlook through year-end remaining subdued as government policies continue to curb excessive capacity expansion.
The country added 14.08 gigawatts of solar capacity in July, up 12.8% from 12.48 GW in June, extending the recovery from 8.68 GW installed in May, according to the latest data from the National Energy Administration. Installations increased 27.5% from 11.04 GW in July 2025.
One market source told OPIS that the stronger mid-year installation figures should not be seen as an improvement in domestic module demand, as utility-scale project installations typically peak during this period.
“There has been a period of module deliveries for utility-scale projects, but these orders were secured in the first half of 2026, so this is more of a ‘seasonable’ factor,” the source said. “I don’t think this should be interpreted as an improvement in the fundamental installation demand.”
The source added that a sharp decline in year-to-date installations largely reflects China’s transition away from guaranteed feed-in-tariffs toward market-based electricity pricing. The policy shift prompted developers to front-load projects and module installations in 2025, creating a high comparison base for this year.
China installed 86.15 GW of new solar capacity from January through July, down more than 61% from the same period last year. The additions brought the country’s cumulative installed solar capacity to 1,288 GW.
In July, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association or CPIA, said at an industry symposium that monthly installations in the first half of 2026 recorded their lowest volatility in nearly five years, with the adjustment in domestic installations showing signs that the market was returning to more rational levels.
Looking ahead, China’s solar installation is expected to remain conservative ahead of the Golden Week holidays in October, with demand likely to stay broadly flat in the near term, according to Frank Haugwitz, senior advisor at
cleantech advisory firm Apricum.
Haugwitz added that even reaching the lower end of CPIA’s full-year installation forecast of 180 GW could be challenging, with some industry participants already revising their 2026 expectations to around 160-200 GW.
CPIA forecast in February that China would install 180-240 GW of solar capacity in 2026, representing a decline of around 24%-43% from the record 315.07 GW added in 2025.
To meet the lower end of CPIA’s domestic forecast, China would need to add an average of around 18.8 GW per month from July to December. Monthly additions would need to average 30.8 GW to reach the upper end.