China Maps 2030 Clean Energy Targets, Power Market Reforms
China aims to raise non-fossil energy to 25% of its total energy consumption and 50% of power generation by 2030 under a five-year plan which prioritizes energy security, grid and storage investment, and electricity market reform.
The 15th Five-Year Plan was jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on June 25.
China is targeting total installed power capacity of 5.4 terawatts by 2030, up from 3.89 TW in 2025, with wind and solar expected to account for more than half of installed capacity.
The plan also targets new energy sources to contribute 30% of power generation by 2030.
Coal and oil consumption are expected to peak during the planning period. At the same time, the plan retains a focus on domestic coal, oil and gas production and storage infrastructure to safeguard energy security under extreme scenarios.
Solar remains a growth sector
China will continue building large-scale wind and solar farms in the desert, Gobi and arid regions, including the Kubuqi, Ulan Buhe, Tengger and Badain Jaran deserts. These projects will be designed to supply electricity to other regions through transmission corridors.
The plan also calls for wider deployment of distributed solar photovoltaic in rural areas, development of building-integrated PV, and building of zero-carbon factories and industrial parks.
Separately, China will promote direct green power connections for data centers, energy-intensive industries with green power requirements and export companies requiring renewable energy traceability.
Beijing is also targeting 15GW of cumulative solar thermal power capacity by 2030 and 2 million metric tons of renewable hydrogen production by 2030. The country plans to develop green hydrogen, ammonia and methanol production and study the use of electricity from wind and solar bases for hydrogen production.
The plan also calls for the development of system-friendly new energy power stations, alongside measures to improve grid stability and consumption of renewable power.
For the solar manufacturing industry, China will strengthen innovation in PV technical equipment, standards and intellectual property protection. It will also seek to improve supply-demand balance and encourage healthier competition across the supply chain.
The plan does not have a standalone solar capacity target for 2030, instead placing PV expansion within targets for wind and solar capacity, non-fossil power and new energy consumption.
Grid and storage expansion
China plans to add more than 80GW of West-to-East power transmission capacity, raising the total capacity to over 420GW by 2030, while increasing inter-regional grid support capacity by around 40GW.
The new transmission links will carry electricity from major wind and solar bases in northern, northeastern and northwestern China, as well as hydro-wind-solar projects in the southwest to major power-consuming regions.
Distribution networks will be upgraded to accommodate around 900GW of distributed new energy connections by 2030. China will also support the development of smart microgrids, dispatch systems and direct green power supply based on local conditions.
Energy storage will form a main part of the power system buildout. China is targeting 300GW of new energy storage and 160GW of pumped storage capacity by 2030, alongside the development of long-duration storage technologies and multiple storage technologies.
The plan also targets over 50GW of large-scale virtual power plant regulation capacity by 2030. China will expand vehicle-to-grid applications and aims to build around 50GW of adjustable electric vehicle charging capacity.
Electricity market reform
China plans to establish a unified national electricity market system linking spot, medium-to-long-term, ancillary services and capacity markets.
The government will expand inter-provincial and cross-regional power trading, improve pricing and settlement mechanisms for new energy, and establish reliable capacity compensation mechanisms.
Power dispatch will also be increasingly based on market transaction outcomes.
China will accelerate the development of green certificate and green power markets, combining mandatory and voluntary consumption requirements, while improving the accounting and traceability of renewable electricity.
The plan seeks greater international recognition of China’s green certificates to help the industry respond to overseas carbon requirements.
Changing role of fossil fuels
Although the plan targets a peak in coal and oil consumption during the period, it retains fossil fuels as an important part of China’s energy security and power system strategy.
The plan calls for thermal power to shift toward system support and regulating functions. China will control coal-fired power capacity and generation, while upgrading existing units for deeper peak shaving and faster ramping.
It will also continue managing both coal plant retirements and operating life extensions.
At the same time, China will focus coal production in five major supply bases, which are targeted to account for more than 80% of national output by 2030. The country also plans to establish more than 100 million mt per year of reserve coal-production capacity.
Annual crude production will be maintained at around 200 million mt, while natural gas production is expected to grow steadily.
The country will expand oil and gas storage, pipelines and LNG infrastructure, with natural gas trunk pipeline capacity to reach 500 billion cubic meters per annum by 2030.
China will strictly control refining capacity through capacity replacement, while encouraging consolidation and upgrades among major producers and in key refining hubs, according to the plan.
—Reporting by Brian Ng, bng@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com