China Module Forward Curve Flattens as Policies Lift 2027 Prices
FOB China TOPCon solar module forward prices flattened from their previous backwardation this week, as regulatory measures across China’s solar supply chain tempered bearish expectations for 2027 loading prices, according to OPIS data and industry sources.
OPIS assessed FOB China TOPCon mainstream modules for the first quarter of 2027 loading 0.93% higher on the week at $0.108 per watt peak, bringing the assessment in line with Q3 and Q4 2026 loading prices and erasing the backwardation seen in the past few weeks. TOPCon refers to tunnel oxide passivated contact solar technology.
The flattening suggests that market expectations have firmed further out on the forward curve, even as the spot market remains largely unchanged. Based on an OPIS market survey, several industry sources expect forward loading prices to stabilize or edge higher as recent policy measures reinforce pricing discipline across the supply chain.
Meanwhile, FOB China mainstream TOPCon modules held steady on the week at $0.108/wp, with market indications ranging from $0.104-$0.113/wp, according to OPIS data.
The divergence between firmer forward expectations and the largely stable spot market reflects uncertainty over how effectively these policies will be enforced and whether higher upstream costs can be passed through to downstream module buyers.
Some module manufacturers have already raised their 2027 price indications on expectations of a firmer cost floor.
One tier-1 module manufacturer said an agreement on Friday among leading Chinese polysilicon manufacturers, representing over 90% of domestic capacity, had reversed some of the previously bearish market sentiment and could provide near-term support to prices.
The participating companies pledged that the selling prices for photovoltaic products, including tender and bidding quotations, should not fall below the costs calculated under the General Rules for Cost Accounting Models in the Photovoltaic Industry.
The cost accounting standard, which spans the solar supply chain, provides regulators with a common framework for assessing production costs and below cost sales. Chinese market regulators have also stepped up price guidance for the PV industry, calling on manufacturers to strengthen cost accounting and curb disorderly low price competition.
Although industry sources expect the measures to provide short-term price support, the longer-term impact will depend on enforcement and whether production costs can be passed through a supply chain that remains structurally oversupplied.
As such, this has left many market participants in a wait-and-see stance, leading to the shift in sentiment that has so far been more visible in forward expectations than in transacted module prices.
An international module buyer told OPIS that several manufacturers have adopted a more bullish view on forward pricing following the recent solar cell consumption tax announcement and cost accounting measures. However, actual forward transactions have shown limited volatility, the buyer added.
Upstream Cells Rebound from YTD Low
Upstream FOB China solar cell prices also rebounded from year-to-date lows this week, supported by firmer silver prices and expectations that upcoming consumption tax on solar cells could strengthen domestic pricing.
The recovery in cell prices could provide another layer of support for forward downstream module prices if higher input costs are successfully passed through the supply chain, according to market sources.
OPIS assessed FOB China TOPCon M10 and 210R cells at $0.0405/wp and $0.0399/wp on Aug. 11, up 3.58% and 3.10%, respectively.
Under a July announcement jointly issued by the Ministry of Finance, the General Administration of Customs and the State Taxation Administration, China will impose a 2% consumption tax on solar cells from April 2027, before raising the rate to 4% from April 2028.
A top-10 producer source said the policy could support domestic solar cell prices in the run-up to policy implementation, as buyers may be incentivized to bring purchases forward ahead of the April 2027 deadline.
However, industry sources felt that the recent price support could be temporary rather than structural since front-loading would merely shift demand into the period before implementation, rather than increase consumption over the longer term.
China produced over 660 gigawatts of solar cells in 2025, while the new domestic PV installations in 2025 totaled 315.07 GW, implying that cell production exceeded actual domestic demand by more than two times, based on the annual development roadmap published by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association in February.
Persistent overcapacity and weak end-user demand could continue to limit cell producers’ ability to pass the additional tax burden downstream, sources said.
—Reporting by Brian Ng, bng@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com