Colorado State University Forecasts Below-Average Activity in 2026 Hurricane Season

Activity during the 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season is expected to be lower than normal, with six hurricanes expected and a 32% probability of a major hurricane making landfall somewhere on the U.S. coastline, according to a forecast this week from Colorado State University.

CSU forecasters expect 13 named storms during the season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. That’s slightly lower than the 14.4 average seen in seasons from 1991 to 2020.

The forecast for six hurricanes compares to an average 7.2 per season over that 30-year period. The forecasters expect two of those storms to become major hurricanes, compared to the recent average of 3.2 per season.

The forecasters said expectations of a “robust” El Nino in the Pacific Ocean is a primary factor in expectations for a quieter season. El Niño conditions typically increase wind shear across the Atlantic, making it more difficult for storms to organize.

The CSU forecast is largely in line with Accuweather’s expectations for the hurricane season, which was released last month. Accuweather is calling for a near-to-below-average Atlantic hurricane season, with 11 to 16 named storms. This is expected to include four to seven hurricanes and two to four major hurricanes. Accuweather forecasters expect three to five direct impacts to the U.S. during the season.

The CSU forecast is not much different from what was seen during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which produced 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Three of those hurricanes – Erin, Humberto and Melissa – were Category 5 storms. The 2025 season is considered to have been an above-normal season, the CSU forecast said.

The CSU forecasters noted that their outlook for the season comes amid conflicting weather signals in the Atlantic. Waters in the western tropical Atlantic are currently warmer than normal, which would usually favor
above-normal activity, the forecasters said.

However, waters in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic are slightly cooler than normal. Those conditions usually favor below-normal activity, according to the forecasters.

The CSU forecast expects hurricane activity to be about 75% of the average season from 1991-2020.

By comparison, 2025’s hurricane activity was about 105% of the average season, the forecasters said.

The forecast’s 32% probability of a hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast compares to the historic average of 43%.

The forecast said there is a 15% chance of a hurricane this year making landfall on the East Coast, compared to the historic average of 21%.

There is a 20% chance of a hurricane hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, the forecast said. That compares to the historic average of 27%. A storm hitting the Gulf coastline would likely impact offshore crude oil and natural gas drilling activity as well as refinery operations in the region.

Both CSU and Accuweather said they will regularly update their forecasts as the hurricane season progresses.

Reporting by Steve Cronin, scronin@opisnet.com; Editing by Michael Kelly, mkelly@opisnet.com