COP31: Energy Security, Climate Goals No Longer at Odds Amid Electrification Push
ANTALYA, Turkey – The long-running dilemma between securing energy supplies and cleaning up energy systems is coming to an end, International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol said at the COP31 Global Electrification Initiative in Antalya on Tuesday.
“We do not have to make choices anymore, either/or,” Birol told ministers at the UN climate conference, saying that for the first time in a long while energy security and clean transition goals were closely aligned.
Birol called the current environment “perhaps the largest energy security crisis in history,” with the pipeline route from Russia to Europe stopped and confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz “shattered badly.”
By contrast, renewables growth has accelerated in the last eight months, electric car sales outside China have risen 60% in nine months, and 90 gigawatts of nuclear power is under construction, the highest in four decades, he said.
Electrification is emerging as COP31’s signature initiative to help address the energy crisis. The presidency launched the Global Electrification Initiative with the IEA to build support for the “35-by-35” pledge, a voluntary goal of raising electricity’s share of final energy use – the fuel and power used by households, transport and industry – to 35% by 2035 from about 23% today.
A pledge backed by many countries would give investors “an unmistakable signal,” Birol said. “If you want to make … some handsome returns to your money, you better invest in electricity,” he added.
Governments Have Yet to Agree
An IEA special report prepared for the presidency estimates that technologies available currently could cost-effectively lift the share to about 33%, but current policies would deliver only about 30% by 2035.
About half of oil-based road transport demand could be electrified competitively now, the report says, but grids would need to expand 40% faster than they have done so over the past decade. Reaching 35% would cut importers’ annual energy bills by about $400 billion by 2035, or more than $500 billion at this year’s higher prices, the IEA said.
In pushing for the initiative, Turkey is seeking a broadly acceptable climate commitment that strengthens energy security and reduces reliance on imported fuels, while avoiding the more divisive issue of phasing out fossil fuels. COP31 president Murat Kurum has said “until now electrification has not been underpinned by a clear global goal.”
Climate policy professor and former European Commission director general for climate Jos Delbeke said in an interview with Dow Jones Energy Tuesday: “The target of electrification is a very useful one, because it allows us to install more renewables and more storage and more infrastructure.”
Delbeke said the EU is taking a realistic line, backing more renewables and nuclear power for countries that want it, as well as energy savings, but the pace is slower than it should be.
Government attitudes range from concerns over the pledge’s wording to outright refusal to sign.
While EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen said Tuesday that Europe aims to become an “electro-continent,” EU negotiators have expressed a wish to tie the pledge explicitly to clean electricity, warning that electrification alone may not reduce emissions.
India’s environment minister has ruled out signing the pledge and China has yet to formally endorse the target, despite expressing support for greater electrification.
The initiative’s design includes an Electrification Forum of governments, businesses and financiers that will continue after COP31. The IEA will track progress, and the International Renewable Energy Agency will lead a program to expand distribution grids in developing countries.
“35 by 35 will not be only another pledge. It will be a turning point in the energy sector,” said Birol.
The 2026 United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, runs from Nov. 9 to Nov. 20 in Antalya, Turkey.
–Reporting by Nia Simeonova, Nia.Simeonova@dowjones.com; Editing by Rob Sheridan, rob.sheridan@dowjones.com