E15 Growth Expected to Continue Despite Ongoing Challenges: Panelists
E15 growth is expected to continue into 2026, despite continuing challenges, according to panelists speaking this week at the Society of Independent Gasoline Marketers of America’s (SIGMA) annual meeting in Nashville.
In a legislative committee meeting, SIGMA noted that EPA on June 10, 2019, finalized a rule which granted a 1-lb waiver of RVP limits on gasoline containing up to 15% ethanol (E15). That rule allowed for year-round sales of E15 in non-reformulated gasoline markets. However, in 2021 the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that the agency did not have the legal authority to grant the waiver.
SIGMA legislative committee members stated that some refiners are opposed to legislation allowing year-round E15 without other reforms to policies governing renewable fuels. SIGMA said it supports legislation that would allow E15 to be sold year-round, but has also been encouraging lawmakers to do so with broader consideration to advancing low carbon liquid fuels policies.
Megan Boutwell of Stillwater Associates did note that some of the barriers to E15 access are starting to dissolve, which has increased gasoline supply. Data from the renewable fuels association (RFA) estimated that E15 sales grew by 11% in 2024 due to the summertime waivers. Going forward, availability and sales are expected to grow in 2025.
Despite the projected increase in E15 access, there are still challenges. There continue to be infrastructure limitations and some state-level restrictions which present roadblocks in certain areas. Growth of E15 also started slowly due to equipment issues, as new dispensers need to be installed to offer the product.
Jeff Dzierzanowski of Source North America stated that compatibility remains an issue for E15 access, as well as upgrading legacy sites. Despite that, growth has continued.
“Growth the last two years has come a long way,” he stated.
Two industry groups – the American Petroleum Institute (API) and American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM) – recently reversed course and now oppose legislation that would allow year-round E15 sales.
API recently told Congress that it now opposes a proposal to make E15 available year-round across the country. In a letter to House and Senate leaders, API President Mike Sommers said legislative, regulatory and market developments over the last eight months have created a different landscape than existed when the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025 was introduced.
Despite some potential challenges, growth is also expected to continue as California recently signed a bill into law that allows for E15 sales.
Even though growth initially started slowly, more than 1,000 new E15 sites are expected over the next three years, according to Andrew Falco of Growth Energy.
OPIS previously reported that the availability of E15 throughout the year is the single most important policy issue for Growth Energy.
–Reporting by Andrew Atwal, aatwal@opisnet.com; Editing by Patrick Newkumet, pnewkumet@opisnet.com