Ethanol Output, Blending Snaps Back as Winter Freeze Fades

U.S. ethanol producers increased output quickly last week as drivers returned to the roads following the end of a huge winter storm that brought freezing temperatures to most of the country, an event that brought increased demand figures many expected to see in the latest weekly batch of data from the EIA.

Nationwide ethanol production that averaged 1.11 million b/d for the week ended Feb. 6 jumped 16.1% week to week, according to the agency’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report issued Wednesday, displaying a quick recovery from a 21-month low the week prior, when freezing weather forced many plants to severely cut output or halt operations completely.

The quick recovery also had U.S. production moving back ahead of the same time last year by 2.6% after sliding 14% in arrears the previous week.

The recovery put ethanol production back on track with the hearty rates plants have produced so far in 2026, only about 0.36% behind the pre-storm production recorded two weeks ago and rising 4.7% above the output averaged over the previous three years. Compared to the prior five years, producers boosted output by 8.6%.

Ethanol production of 1.075 million b/d during the last four reporting weeks still averaged less than it did a year ago, shaving 2,000 b/d year to year — but that rate would still produce almost 16.48 billion gal of fuel if maintained over the course of a full year.

Regionally, EIA recorded stronger week-to-week ethanol output rates in nearly every PADD region of the country. The comeback was led by Midwest (PADD 2) plants that reversed nearly all the output drop reported the week before, surging 151,000 b/d (or 16.7%) to 1.053 million b/d, running more than 2.9% higher than the same week of 2025.

U.S. Gulf Coast (PADD 3) production recovered only about half the downturn from the week before, rising 3,000 b/d (13%) to 26,000 b/d but still representing a 1,000 b/d year-to-year shortfall. East Coast (PADD 1) and West Coast (PADD 5) ethanol production both edged up to parity with year-ago output, adding a minimal 1,000 b/d during the report week.

Ethanol market sources and analysts alike noted the rapid recovery in output as the grip of freezing weather began to subside across areas of the country, but they were unsurprised by it, noting that ethanol output margins had been under pressure lately but remained profitable. The long lead time in the stormy forecast provided plenty of preparation time and likely meant minimal damage to ethanol output streams.

Ethanol blending data also predictably recovered over the week, as foul weather abated. The key ethanol blending proxy — ethanol blender net input — rebounded by 50,000 b/d (6.3%) to 841,000 b/d. That figure was still down 1.5% from a year ago.

Over the last four weeks, ethanol blender net input averaged 842,000 b/d, down 1,000 b/d year to year.

Conventional gasoline blending with ethanol rallied 240,000 b/d from week to week, rising 4.7% to 5.321 million b/d, down 2.7% from year-ago blending. A much sharper 277,000 b/d (10.2%) week-to-week jump for reformulated gasoline blending with ethanol moved 2.9% ahead of the same week last year, landing at 2.983 million b/d.

Gasoline demand in EIA accounting also reflected week-to-week weather-related gains, but the recovery was considered light (or even disappointing) by some in the market. At 8.3 million b/d, the agency’s volume of gasoline supplied increased 147,000 b/d from the big hit it took the week before, adding 1.8% — but offtake still retreated 3.2% in the year-to-year comparison.

The relatively soft gasoline demand number suggests that lingering cold in parts of the country might point to a slower recovery in demand rather than a quicker move higher in the next week or so.

On the supply side, ethanol inventory that added a modest 111,000 net bbl to U.S. storage during the week — up 0.44% to 25.247 million bbl — regained less than half the draw recorded the week before, remaining 1.7% below year-ago stockpiles. Stocks for the week was also behind recent years, down 1.4% from the average over the prior three years.

The nationwide report-week build was almost exclusively the creature of the East Coast, where a long run of historically low stockpiles swelled 579,000 bbl. Most other regions trimmed inventory over the week. East Coast ethanol supply at 7.499 million bbl gained 8.4% from week to week, but it held 6.5% less than the region did a year ago and trailed 6.1% behind the region’s five-year inventory average.

U.S. Gulf Coast ethanol stocks drained 273,000 net bbl on the week, a 6.4% draw to 3.972 million bbl that left supply 17.4% tighter year to year. West Coast ethanol stocks at 2.598 million bbl still topped year-ago supply by 8.5% after shedding 145,000 bbl (5.3%) week to week.

Midwest ethanol inventory at 10.79 million bbl slipped a slender 54,000 bbl (0.5%), but healthy regional supply remained over the 10-million-bbl threshold for the seventh week in a row, 6.6% higher than the same week last year. Compared to the Midwest average over the prior five years, stocks were up almost 12%.

U.S. ethanol supply gained as exports slumped. The 137,000 b/d of fuel ethanol that EIA estimated leaving the U.S. for foreign markets slashed shipments from one of the highest rates on record (seen only the week before), with exports down 79,000 b/d (36.6%). But shipments also dropped 8.7% in the year-to-year comparison.

The big rally in ethanol production over the week took the daily output rate up to 13.37% when expressed as a percentage of daily gasoline demand, climbing from 11.73% calculated over the previous report week.

Reporting by Spencer Kelly, skelly@opisnet.com