European Jet Fuel Market Amply Supported Through 2026: Makai
In their Monthly European Oil Market Report published on August 3, Makai Marine Advisors revealed the recent health of the European jet fuel market.
Despite the loss of imports from the Middle East due to conflict in the region and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Europe seems to have averted severe supply shortages and navigated the peak summer demand period.
“Refiners have done everything to keep the European aviation market afloat this summer”, Makai wrote in their report.
Indeed, as their data reveals, European refinery output surged from March through May in response to an impending supply crisis. Lured by the prospect of attractive margins, jet fuel output was up 28.6% in May compared to the previous year, softening the blow of a 16.2% year-on-year (YOY) reduction in jet fuel imports into Europe.
Interestingly, the market saw very little demand destruction, just 0.6% YOY in May. This compares to European road diesel demand falling by 7.6%, while other gasoil products saw demand plummet by over 26%.
The European jet fuel market has also been supported by increased import volumes from the United States and Nigeria over the summer. Over 811,000 metric tons arrived at European ports from the US Gulf Coast from April through July, while over 877,000 mt came from Nigeria’s 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery over the same period, according to Vortexa data.
Makai expects European jet fuel output to remain high as the year progresses. In the third quarter of 2026, it is forecast to be 1.42 million barrels per day and in Q4 they expect it to reach 1.23 million bpd. Compared to Q3 and Q4 2025, that is an increase in output of 197,000 bpd and 73,000 bpd, respectively.
“Even with easing in yields, jet/kero output should rise by 157 kpbd (‘000 bpd) YOY in 2026, closing a half of the AG import shortfall”, Makai wrote.
It also noted the forecast for jet fuel imports as the year continues.
“Although Europe is doing a decent job of partially replacing AG flow with US Gulf and Nigerian jet imports, overall imports should decline by 153 kbpd, or 15.1%”.