Global SAF Production Growth to Slow Down in 2026: IATA

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has warned that the global production growth rate of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) will slow in 2026, while average prices are expected to jump by 15% year on year.

In a report released on Saturday, the airlines trade body estimated that SAF production will increase by around 500,000 mt to reach 2.6 million metric tons in 2026. Last year, global output had grown by 900,000 mt to 1.9 million mt, nearly doubling relative to 2024.

IATA estimates that the average SAF price will increase by 15% this year to $2,872/mt, 2.5 times the price of conventional jet fuel. This will result in $4.3 billion of additional fuel costs for the global airline industry in 2026.

“It looks to be another disappointing year for SAF production. Five years after committing to achieve net zero by 2050, SAF production will only account for 0.8% of airline fuel use this year,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

According to the association, production growth is being hampered by ineffective government policies and lack of interest from oil companies. Specifically, IATA complained that regulatory consumption mandates have been introduced before supply is assured, pushing SAF prices much higher in some regions.

“The current energy shock should add even more urgency to the development of renewables, including SAF. But we have yet to see either the energy shock, the need to develop energy independence and jobs, or the urgency to mitigate climate change materialize in the incentives needed to create a viable SAF market,” Walsh said.

Reporting by Jaime Llinares Taboada, jllinares@opisnet.com; Editing by Rob Sheridan, rsheridan@opisnet.com