India Likely to Export More Jet Fuel, Gasoil in July, With Bulk Heading Westward
Shipping data and market feedback indicate that India will likely export more jet fuel and gasoil in July than in June, with the majority expected to head westward towards Africa and Europe. This diverges from previous months, when a significant portion was delivered eastward towards Asia, according to data provided by Vortexa and market sources.
Larger East-West Spreads Shift Arbitrage Westward
The East-West price spreads for both jet fuel and gasoil tilted in favor of Asia over Europe in March and April after the Iran conflict broke out on Feb. 28, as Asia was hit much more heavily by crude and oil product disruptions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The E-W Exchange of Futures for Swap gasoil values and the E-W price spreads for jet fuel in February averaged a discount of $42.59/metric ton and $42.81/mt, respectively, according to OPIS data.
The E-W EFS gasoil values and E-W price spreads for jet fuel rose to averages of $23.89/mt discount and $123.11/mt premium, respectively, in March and April combined.
More recently, the price spreads have shifted back in favor of Europe as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz partially recovered in the second half of June, following the Iran peace deal announcement on June 12.
Sentiments in Europe grew more bullish in the past week as heatwaves disrupted refinery operations and Russia announced that oil product exports would likely fall sharply due to drone attacks on its refineries.
The E-W EFS gasoil values and E-W price spreads for jet fuel were at average discounts of $64.84/mt and $60.21/mt, respectively, for June 25 to July 2. The latest E-W price spreads in the past week showed that the arbitrages for larger LR2-sized jet fuel cargoes from the West Coast of India, Red Sea ports, Singapore and South Korea to Europe are now opened, according to an analyst.
Similarly for gasoil, the arbitrages for long range 2-sized cargoes from the Middle East and the West Coast of India are pointed to Europe over Asia, even assuming the vessels travelled the longer journey around the Cape of Good Hope, the analyst stated.
Most vessels prefer to travel the shorter route through the Red Sea and Suez Canal to Europe instead of via the Cape of Good Hope, so the lower freight costs mean that margins are even higher if selling to Europe than to Asia, a shipbroking source explained.
India is expected to export around 1.03 million mt of jet fuel in July, more than doubled of the 453,500 mt exported in June, and around 1.84 million mt of gasoil in July, compared to 1.61 million mt of jet fuel in June, according to data from Vortexa.
Jet Fuel
India typically ships most of its jet fuel westward. In 2025, it exported a total of 6.80 million mt of jet fuel, 61.6% of which were delivered to Europe and 15.3% to the Middle East, while only 7.9% were shipped to the rest of Asia and 6.0% to Oceania, Vortexa data shows.
The export matrix has since shifted. As of July 2026, only 18.6% of India’s exports are headed to Europe, with 7.7% to the Middle East, while the shares to Asia and Oceania have risen to 13.1% and 7.8%, respectively.
Exports to Europe and the Middle East were sharply lower in March and April as jet fuel prices surged so significantly in Asia that they were higher than in Europe, making the former a more attractive market to sell to.
Exports to Europe picked up in May and June. While most Indian exporters have not declared destinations for their July loading shipments, the bulk is expected to head eastward, to either Europe or Africa.
Gasoil
As for jet fuel, India ships most of its gasoil westward. In 2025, it exported a total of 27.78 million mt of gasoil, 32.7% of which was delivered to Africa and 28.8% to Europe, while 16.0% was shipped to the rest of Asia and 8.7% to Oceania, according to Vortexa.
As of July 2026, Africa has been the most attractive destination for Indian exporters, capturing 37.6% of all exports while only 8.4% were shipped to Europe. Asia and Oceania captured larger shares at 27.8% and 10.9%, respectively.
Most shipping fixtures do not have a declared destination for July shipments at the time of publication, but those that do indicate that they are heading westward towards Europe, Middle East and Africa.
According to a source, there has been a shipping fixture from Indian refiner Reliance loading 130,000 mt of ultra low sulfur diesel at Sikka port on July 15-20 onto the vessel Aegean Miracle for discharge in the west.
—Reporting by Kite Chong, kchong@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com