Iran Seen Exporting 500,000 b/d of Oil Despite U.S. Blockade, Sanctions
Iran is likely exporting 500,000 b/d of crude and refined products despite tighter U.S. sanctions and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on Tehran’s oil ordered by President Donald Trump, according to a leading analyst.
Up to 400,000 b/d of these exports are crude, with the majority loaded in Iraqi waters and effectively disguised, with another 100,000 b/d of mainly fuels transported overland, said Iman Nasseri, senior vice president for Middle East and Asia at consultancy FGE NexantECA.
The Islamic Republic was thought to be shipping 1.6 million b/d of crude at the end of 2025, before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, triggering a regional conflict and the near full closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Nasseri, one of the top researchers on Iranian oil, said the these oil sales were being handled by the internationally sanctioned “merchant” arm of the IRGC in Iran, which has effectively taken control of oil. He was speaking to Dow Jones Energy on Wednesday on the sidelines of the ADIPEC oil industry conference in Abu Dhabi.
The U.S. first blockaded Iranian ports in April. In August, the Trump administration ordered “Operation Economic Outcast” aimed at completely cutting of Tehran’s ability to sell its oil in the international markets.
Before the conflict, China was the biggest market for Iranian oil but deliveries were also recorded in multiple ports across Southeast Asia, according to an analysis by the U.S. Department of Energy published in June. Iran has been able to continue to export under sanctions through a complex web of counterparties and the so called shadow fleet of vessel known as the “shadow fleet”.
Based on current market prices, Nasseri’s estimates of Iranian crude shipments of 400,000 b/d would generate around $1.2 billion per month of foreign currency revenue for the regime, though the cargoes are likely priced at significant discounts, according to market sources.
Iran, a founding member of OPEC, pumped 1.957 million b/d of crude in September, data from the organization shows, down from 3.142 million b/d in the first quarter of 2026. Analysts largely attribute the decline to the Trump administration’s efforts to halt Iranian exports.
–By Andrew Critchlow