REI 2026: India’s Upstream Solar Push Draws Record Chinese Equipment Suppliers Despite Looming Export Curbs
Chinese equipment suppliers turned out in far greater numbers at this year’s Renewable Energy India Expo, days after China proposed export controls on the solar manufacturing technologies that underpin India’s push into cells, ingots and wafers.
According to the organizer’s published exhibitor list, there were 30 Chinese photovoltaic manufacturing and testing equipment suppliers at the Oct. 22-24 exhibition in Greater Noida, more than triple the nine recorded in 2025.
Yet, discussions at the event revealed mounting uncertainty over how the proposed controls would affect equipment delivery lead times and the technical support needed to bring new lines into production.
Several Chinese suppliers described plans to keep serving Indian customers by assembling equipment in Southeast Asia. Whether such arrangements would withstand tighter export controls, however, was unclear.
China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Science and Technology on Oct. 16 proposed adding 12 PV technologies to the country’s catalogue of technologies prohibited or restricted from export, with the scope extending to key equipment incorporating those technologies.
Under the proposal, exports of specified tunnel oxide passivated contact or TOPCon, heterojunction and back-contact cell technologies, along with advanced crystal-pulling and wafer-cutting processes, would require government approval. Other technologies meeting specified thresholds, including those for ultra-thin wafers, perovskite and tandem cells, and large-scale fluidized-bed polysilicon production, would be banned outright.
Although the proposal is open for consultation until Nov. 15, an interim registration requirement already applies to exports of the listed technologies and covered equipment, including transactions that have begun but are not yet complete.
Shipment Timing Shapes Early Impact
The immediate impact on Indian manufacturers appeared uneven, with exposure largely determined by whether equipment had already been shipped before the announcement.
One Indian manufacturer told Dow Jones Energy that shipments of equipment it had ordered from China were halted following the announcement. The company had made only partial payment and was withholding further payments.
Similarly, unconfirmed reports of more than 200 containers of solar manufacturing equipment being held at Chinese ports also circulated widely among Indian exhibitors.
Indian manufacturers whose equipment had already been dispatched appeared less exposed. A producer targeting commercial TOPCon cell production from the first quarter of 2027 said it did not expect to push back that timeline.
“Thankfully, all of the necessary equipment required for our cell plant have been dispatched before the announcement,” the company’s representative said.
Most manufacturers interviewed at the event said they had yet to experience any direct effects. Expectations among these attendees, however, ranged widely, from no disruption at all to longer delivery lead times and higher costs from alternative sourcing arrangements.
Technology providers outside China saw a possible opening. A European PV equipment supplier said the restrictions could create opportunities for non-Chinese suppliers.
For Indian buyers, however, cost remains an obstacle. A manufacturer planning 2.5 GW of ingot and wafer capacity said European equipment cost two to three times as much as Chinese machines and was not considered an option.
Suppliers Eye Third-Country Assembly, but Doubts Persist
Despite the regulatory uncertainty, Chinese equipment suppliers have strong commercial incentives to maintain access to India.
“The majority of inquiries we get are from India nowadays,” said a representative of a Chinese ingot and wafer equipment supplier, describing the country as a priority market.
Five of the six Chinese equipment suppliers approached by Dow Jones Energy said they had established subsidiaries in Southeast Asia. Suppliers described arrangements under which components manufactured in China could be shipped to these subsidiaries for assembly before onward delivery to India, expecting additional logistics and processing costs of approximately 15%.
While such arrangements could provide alternative routes for equipment shipments, some participants said their viability would depend on how China applies the proposed controls.
“If equipment suppliers and buyers are so openly talking about exploit arrangements like this, I highly doubt Chinese government is unaware,” said a separate Chinese equipment supplier.
Post-Delivery Support Comes Into Question
Even where equipment reaches India, Chinese suppliers’ involvement often extends well beyond delivery, with engineers providing on-site support through installation, commissioning and production ramp-up.
The dependence is particularly pronounced in India, where delays in factory construction and utility work can require suppliers to make repeated visits before equipment is brought into operation.
“Some of our equipment delivered to a customer has been in storage in a warehouse for almost a year now,” a Chinese equipment supplier said. “The issue with India is the utility and construction side.”
The prolonged installation process and repeated on-site support raise another question under the proposed controls: whether Chinese suppliers can continue providing the technical expertise needed to bring equipment into commercial production.
“So far, there is no restriction of sending engineers for support,” one Chinese supplier said. “But to be honest, I wouldn’t feel comfortable sending 15 engineers from China to India with purpose explicitly written as commissioning assistance.”
Indian Module Makers Seek Relief on Domestic-Cell Sourcing Deadline
Concerns over equipment delivery and commissioning are also prompting some Indian module manufacturers to seek further relief from domestic cell-sourcing requirements.
A module manufacturer awaiting a cell equipment shipment said an industry association it belongs to–whose members include standalone module makers–was petitioning the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy to extend transitional exemptions under List-II of India’s ALMM, should equipment become difficult to obtain.
The ALMM List-II requirements, which took effect in June, mandate the use of approved domestically manufactured solar cells in covered projects. ALMM refers to the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers.
In July, the ministry extended a limited exemption for qualifying net-metering and open-access renewable energy projects until Dec. 31, 2026, due to limited available domestic cell supply.
The manufacturer estimated that establishing a cell plant typically takes about 15 months. Further equipment delays, he argued, could hold back the additional domestic cell supply that module makers will need to depend on as the exemption expires.
For now, participants’ attention turns to China. The final scope and implementation of the restrictions will determine whether the alternative supply arrangements discussed at REI remain viable and how many Indian projects still waiting on Chinese technology can stay on schedule.
–Reporting by Jun Won Lee, jun.lee@dowjones.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mei-hwen.wong@dowjones.com