Rhine Low Water Threatens Split in Coal Logistics
Dwindling water levels on the river Rhine are raising the prospect of a break in commercial navigation around Kaub, with the German shipping industry warning that the river could effectively be split into two sections.
Water levels at Kaub are currently at 16 cm and are expected to fall into single digits this week as dry weather continues to affect the key waterway.
The German Association for Inland Waterway Shipping (BDB) said commercial freight traffic could become impossible around Kaub if levels fall as forecast.
A closure of the Kaub section would leave the Rhine effectively divided for through navigation. Traffic from the ARA ports could continue towards northern German markets as far as around Cologne, while shipping further south could still use waterways including the Neckar, Moselle and Main, BDB Managing Director Jens Schwanen told the Rheinische Post.
The forecast levels, however, don’t mean that the entire river channel drying out. The levels at Kaub are recorded at the river bank, while the depth in the centre of the channel is still around 1 m.
“We are still seeing barges moving through Kaub. They are loading around 20-25% of their normal capacity, so the volumes can still move, but it takes several barges to do what one vessel would normally carry,” a market source told McCloskey.
Kaub is one of the most sensitive points on the Rhine for cargo movements between the ARA region and Southern Germany. At very low water levels, barges have to reduce their loads substantially. Some cargoes also have to be split between several barges, adding to the number of vessels needed to move the same volume.
Coal shippers have already been dealing with these restrictions. McCloskey reported last week that German customers were asking for more rail capacity, while some barges were loading only 500-800 t for inland destinations.
German power plants still have comfortable coal inventories put in place earlier this year, providing some protection against disruption.
“Utilities have some cover at the moment, so they can absorb the logistics problems. It would look different if we were still dealing with these water levels several weeks from now,” a market source told McCloskey.
ARA terminals have continued to operate normally, with the restrictions concentrated further inland. Coal cargoes can therefore continue to arrive at Rotterdam and other ARA terminals while the difficulty lies in moving them onwards into Germany.
This has so far allowed utilities to maintain supplies despite the deterioration in river conditions. The situation would become more difficult if low water persists and rail capacity comes under further pressure.
The Rhine is a major route for coal and other bulk commodities entering Germany. Destatis reported that 16.1 mt of coal were transported on German inland waterways in 2025, up 6% from the previous year.
The importance of the waterway extends well beyond coal. The Rhine carries large volumes of petroleum products, chemicals, iron and steel products and agricultural commodities, meaning competition for alternative transport capacity could increase if navigation is disrupted for an extended period.
For the coal market, attention is now turning to the duration of the low water episode. Utilities have stocks and rail is taking some additional volumes, but neither provides a complete replacement for Rhine barge capacity.
A prolonged period of very low water would leave German consumers increasingly dependent on alternative transport while the number of barges required for each cargo continues to rise.