US Waiver on Iranian Energy Exports Fails to Spur Asia’s LPG Buying Interest
Asian buying interest in Iranian LPG cargoes remains limited despite the U.S. granting a 60-day waiver on sanctions covering Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and petroleum products, trade sources said.
The waiver comes amid the peace agreement reached between the U.S. and Iran aimed at ending the conflict.
Analysts said the waiver could lift Iranian LPG exports by around 10%-30%, but market participants said there has been little sign of increased buying interest, with many importers remaining cautious given the temporary nature of the policy shift.
Historically, most Iranian LPG exports have been directed to China. According to Vortexa data, Iran exported 11.45 million metric tons of LPG in 2025, with around 9.64 million mt, or 84.2%, going to China. A similar trend has been seen this year so far, with 3.65 million mt exported in the first five months of 2026, of which 2.84 million mt, or 77.7%, was shipped to China.
However, Chinese market sources said buyers are unlikely to increase Iranian LPG imports, as procurement has already been diversified following earlier Middle East disruptions. Alternative supply sources, including term contracts from the U.S., were already in place.
“No significant increase is expected. Iranian LPG imports in June and July are likely to stay around 2.5 million to 3 million mt, which is the usual monthly average,” a Chinese trader said.
Another trader said that during earlier supply disruptions in the Middle East, many major Chinese buyers already held long-term agreements with U.S. suppliers, limiting the need for additional Iranian volumes.
Some market participants had initially expected India to absorb the excess Iranian LPG volumes amid earlier supply tightness during the conflict. However, Indian sources said inventories remain sufficient, with no urgency to step up spot buying.
An Indian source familiar with the matter said expected arrivals remain at around 1.6 million mt per month over the next two months, largely made up of U.S. CFR cargoes and Middle East FOB term cargoes.
Overall, buyers across Asia said Iranian cargoes are unlikely to see a meaningful pickup in demand, as the short-term nature of the waiver has kept market sentiment cautious.
Market participants also noted that many petrochemical producers incurred losses during the extreme volatility seen earlier in the conflict, when feedstock costs fluctuated sharply and supply tightened, making them more hesitant to start securing Iranian barrels.
The CFR Japan LPG flat price has also eased since the peace deal, assessed at $589/mt on Monday, down from $893.75/mt a month earlier, OPIS data shows.
—Reporting by Cheryl Lee, clee@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com