China’s 2025 Solar Forecast Upgraded Amid Surge in H1 Installations
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association or CPIA has revised its forecast for the country’s newly installed photovoltaic capacity in 2025, from 215–255 gigawatts previously to 270–300 GW, said Chairman Wang Bohua at a seminar last week. The upward revision reflects progress in ground-mounted solar projects and steady demand in provinces with established market-oriented electricity trading mechanisms.
Provinces that have fully implemented competitive electricity markets — such as Gansu and Qinghai — are relatively insulated from policy interventions, allowing for stable project development.
Wang’s remarks referenced the recent introduction of two national policy changes. The 430 policy, effective May 1, mandates that industrial and commercial users of distributed PV projects prioritize self-consumption of electricity, with only surplus generation permitted for grid feed-in. The 531 policy, implemented on June 1, introduces a market-based pricing mechanism for newly grid-connected renewable energy projects. These policy changes prompted developers to accelerate project timelines, resulting in a significant front-loading of demand into the first half of the year.
China added 14.36 GW of new solar PV capacity in June, according to the National Energy Administration. While this was down 84.6% from the 92.92 GW recorded in May, total installations for the first half of 2025 reached 212.2 GW — nearly double the 102.5 GW installed during the same period in 2024.
Industry opinions on the CPIA’s revised forecast are divided, with some market participants viewing the adjustment as reasonable, pointing to earlier projections as overly conservative. One industry insider noted that in previous years, installations in the second half typically account for 60%–70% of the annual total. However, this year’s dynamics have diverged, as a significant portion of second-half demand — estimated at over 100 GW — was installed ahead of policy deadlines in the first half.
“If we assume that roughly 100 GW of the 212 GW installed in H1 was originally expected in H2, and apply the CPIA’s upper-end projection of 300 GW, then first-half installations represent approximately 38% of the annual total — broadly consistent with historical patterns,” the source said.
Other analysts are more cautious. They argue that with 212 GW already installed, second-half additions may well fall short of 100 GW, citing diminishing returns for end-users and recent price increases across the solar supply chain as key constraints on future demand.
An industry expert sees the projected installation range of 270–300 GW for China in 2025 as comparable to the 277.17 GW installed in 2024, or a modest increase of approximately 8% over that level. “The prevailing consensus is that while total annual installations may still increase, growth will slow both in China and globally. The most optimistic scenario is an annual growth rate of just 5–10% in China,” the source added.
Overcapacity has weighed heavily on China’s solar industry for nearly two years, driving prices below production costs and prompting calls for regulatory intervention. Discussions by industry stakeholders and regulators around price stabilization, competition and industry consolidation have intensified since the second quarter and are gradually influencing market sentiment.
As of July 22, China Mono Premium — OPIS’ price assessment for mono-grade polysilicon — rose by 18.5% from July 1 to 40.25 yuan ($5.629)/kg. Module prices also saw their first uptick on the same day, with FOB China TOPCon modules increasing 2.4% week on week to $0.084 per watt peak.
The CPIA has also raised its forecast for global solar installations in 2025, adjusting the range from 531–583 GW to 570–630 GW. The association expects global market growth to slow down, due to weaker installation activity in the first half in traditional markets such as Brazil, U.S. and Germany. At the same time, surging demand has been seen in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and the Middle East. However, the relatively small market sizes in these regions limit their capacity to drive global growth.
–Reporting by Summer Zhang, szhang@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com