China’s September Solar Installations Slow Amid Export Pivot
China’s solar installations continued to weaken in September, as soft domestic demand prompted module manufacturers to rely more on export markets to manage excess inventory and production levels, according to industry sources and OPIS data.
China installed 9.66 gigawatts of new solar photovoltaic capacity in September, down nearly 54% year-on-year amid weaker-than-expected second-half demand, according to recent data released by the National Energy Administration.
The slowdown follows a record year-to-date low of 7.36 GW in August and 11.04 GW in July, down 55% and 48%, respectively.
Several industry sources noted the installation pace as “bearish”, with recent monthly additions falling short of earlier expectations. Market analysts had initially expected around 10 GW-15 GW of new capacity each month in the second half of 2025.
Despite a soft third quarter, installations in the first nine months of 2025 totaled 240.3 GW, up almost 49% from the same period in 2024. The surge was heavily front-loaded as developers rushed to connect projects ahead of the rollout of Policy 136, which shifts renewable energy projects from stable feed-in tariffs to the spot electricity market.
“August and September clearly lagged behind, mainly because installations were rushed in the first half of the year,” an industry source told OPIS.
May alone added 92.9 GW of new capacity, nearly five times the level in the same month last year, and the highest monthly addition in 2025. April contributed 45.22 GW, more than triple last year’s installation figure.
Export Pivot
With domestic demand softening, some manufacturers have increasingly turned to overseas markets to ease inventory pressure, sources said.
China exported 23.6 GW of modules in September, up 56% year on year, while August shipments rose 28% to 25.7 GW, according to Ember data.
Some market participants also attributed the strong export performance to front-loaded procurement from international buyers, amid speculation that China may soon lower its 9% export tax rebate for solar modules.
Expectations range from a partial reduction to 5% to a complete removal of the rebate. Although no official decision has been announced, several industry sources suggested that changes could still take effect before year-end.
“There’s a high chance that the export tax rebate reduction will happen in December, so we expect exports to stay firm through the end of the year,” said a source from a top-10 module producer.
However, some sources warned that any rebate adjustment may not be fully passed on to buyers, as sellers would likely have to absorb part of the cost increase. While most view the policy adjustment as inevitable, a near-term rollout could further squeeze margins already pressured by weak domestic demand, a tier-one producer said.
–Reporting by Brian Ng, bng@opisnet.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mwong@opisnet.com