China’s Solar Installations Retreat in August as Year-End Pace Slows
China’s solar installations fell month on month in August, snapping three consecutive months of increases, while industry sources expect a seasonal slowdown and subdued buying activity to keep installation growth under pressure through the end of 2026.
The country added 11.04 gigawatts of solar capacity in August, down 21.6% on the month, according to the latest data from the National Energy Administration. Installations previously rose from 12.48 GW in June and 14.08 GW in July.
China installed 97.19 GW of solar capacity in the first eight months of 2026, administration data shows.
A top-tier Chinese manufacturer source said a meaningful recovery in the domestic market was unlikely in the near term despite policy efforts to curb overcapacity and support prices.
“For the domestic module market, we don’t think there will be any noticeable recovery in the short term. Demand and prices are quite sluggish so most manufacturers are focusing on overseas markets. Policy interventions have been ongoing for a year or two now with little effect,” the producer said.
Meanwhile, recent price hikes in upstream wafer and cell markets have yet to translate into higher module prices.
Since the start of August, FOB China N-type 210R wafer and cell prices have risen by 14.2% and 18.1%, respectively, according to OPIS data, while module prices have remained unchanged over the same period.
A top-10 manufacturer source involved in export sales told Dow Jones Energy that international buying activity has also slowed this year, particularly since the start of the third quarter.
“Most of these regulatory policies aimed at supporting prices will probably only be reflected in forward prices, but without sufficient demand to support them, none of these policies will have a lasting impact,” the manufacturer said.
“There have been talks about hiking module prices, but this has faced a lot of resistance and low acceptance from end-users. Many buyers are watching from the sidelines and unwilling to commit to purchases, so spot prices are facing a lot of pressure,” the source added.
The softer market outlook is also reflected in the OPIS forward curve. OPIS assessed FOB China TOPCon module prices for the first quarter of 2027 loading at a $0.02 per watt peak discount to spot prices on Sept. 22, compared with a slight $0.01/wp premium in late June. TOPCon refers to tunnel oxide passivated contact solar cell technology.
Frank Haugwitz, senior advisor at cleantech advisory firm Apricum, expects installations to taper in September and October, partly due to China’s National Day holiday period.
Haugwitz expects near-term installations to remain flat and said reaching even the lower end of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association’s full-year installation forecast of 180 GW could prove challenging. Industry participants have revised their 2026 expectations to around 160-200GW.
The association forecasted in February that China would install 180-240 GW of solar capacity in 2026, down around 24%-43% from the record 315.07 GW added in 2025.
To reach the lower end of this domestic forecast, China would need to add an average of around 20.7 GW per month from September through December. Monthly additions would need to average 35.7 GW to reach the upper end.
—Reporting by Brian Ng, brian.ng@dowjones.com; Editing by Mei-Hwen Wong, mei-hwen.wong@dowjones.com