NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season with 8-14 Named Storms

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday forecast a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year, citing expected El Niño conditions that tend to support fewer tropical storms and hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.

The agency is forecasting a total of eight to 14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher), NOAA said.

An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes, the agency said.

NOAA said it is predicting a 55% chance of a below-normal season, 35% chance of a near-normal one, and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

The agency cited competing factors that could impact hurricane activity. While El Niño conditions are expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, Atlantic ocean temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. Warmer ocean temperatures and low winds typically support a more active hurricane season.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said in a statement.

NOAA said its forecast does not indicate where or when any storms may make landfall because that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns.

Heavy rain, flooding and strong wind brought by hurricanes, storms and tropical systems could affect U.S. fuel supply by disrupting the production of dozens of large and complex refineries located along the U.S. Gulf Coast.

In addition, potential landslides could halt the flow of refined product pipelines and many offshore oil and gas production platforms are likely to halt operations before and during a storm.

Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Steve Cronin, scronin@opisnet.com