US Crude Oil Production Has Not Peaked, Energy Secretary Chris Wright says
U.S. oil production is expected to continue to climb beyond 13.9 million b/d with no immediate peak in output in sight, U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright said Wednesday in an interview with Dow Jones Energy at Journal House in New York City.
“There are enormous oil reserves in Alaska that have been bottled up. … There’s an easy [1.5 million b/d] expansion in Alaska. The Gulf of America, huge reserves, just practical regulation focused on safety, and the environment can unleash that,” Wright said, using the name that the U.S. now recognizes for the Gulf of Mexico.
“Is the U.S. peaked and about to see a decline in oil production? No,” he added.
Since June 2021, U.S. average oil production has gradually moved from 11.5 million b/d to 13.9 million b/d, according to the Energy Information Administration. Previously, monthly outputs reached an all-time high for the country at 13.995 million b/d in October 2025.
Wright said the country’s production output lies between 23 million bbl and 24 million bbl, which he said accounts for about 22% of liquid fuels and closer to 25% of natural gas production in the global market.
Under investment and infrastructure conditions such as incentivized oil drilling, Wright said it was “absolutely possible” for the U.S. to reach 20 million b/d of crude oil production in the next 10 years — a number that would be double the output of Saudi Arabia’s current crude oil output.
“It’s possible,” Wright said. “I wouldn’t say it’s likely. It’s very possible. Absolutely possible.”
The U.S. entered the conflict in the Middle East with 415 million bbl its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the EIA. Wright said that the Biden administration had left around 400 million bbl, and that the reserve now stands at “a little below 300 million bbl.”
“We’re releasing right now, and then we will take delivery back late this year,” Wright added. “Now, we might push it into next year before we’ll start to refill those (reserves) again.”
Wright explained that the country is releasing barrels as a trade for additional inventories in the future, and that for every barrel released, the country would “get roughly 1.25 million bbl in exchange.”
“It’ll come back,” he said. “We’re going to have more oil in the SPR at the end than we did at the start.”
SPR levels could drop “well below” 200 million bbl if necessary, but such a drop remained “very unlikely,” Wright said.
“What we’ve committed to sell right now is 170 [million bbl] from our base. Probably all of that will be sold, and we’ll get 200-plus million to refill it,” he explained.
Wright speculated that the country could go as low as 230 million bbl “at the bottom” of the SPR, with the administration planning on refilling the reserve to between 430 to 450 million bbl, or even higher, by utilizing existing refineries by the end of President Trump’s term.
The Trump administration has come under more pressure this week, as global diesel prices doubled in the aftermath of Ukrainian military strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
Wright told Dow Jones Energy that the “crisis” of high energy prices is a concern rooted “much more in refining than it is in crude.”
Refiners are “running flat out,” Wright said. He pointed to the LNG market, which he said has been “tighter than we would like” due to reduced Qatari volumes.
“And boy, we are doing everything we can to bring those on as fast as possible,” Wright said.
He confirmed that the Trump administration was in discussions to implement a “voluntary plan” that would take a “slice” of ultra-low-sulfur diesel supply off the international market. He said this potential cut would be one that “balances the interest of both parties” but would be “nowhere near a majority” of the overall export inventory.
“We’ve got to keep the world supplied with diesel, but we need to change the trajectory in the United States,” Wright said. “I think there’s trade-offs, but that can be done, and I think you’ll hear more about it in the relatively near future.”
Reporting by Shaheer Naveed, snaveed@opisnet.com; Editing by Dean Visser, dean.visser@dowjones.com