OPIS Insights

During the final week of June 2026, Washington Carbon Allowance secondary market prices dipped to their lowest point in more than a year amid carbon market linkage progress and a proposed increase in allowance budgets for 2026-27.

OPIS assessed WCA prices at the lowest levels since early March 2025 during two consecutive sessions — June 29 and 30 — before prices traded higher on July 1.

WCA prices retreated during an extended run of lower trade values in June to $51.57/metric ton for vintage 2026 prompt delivery and $52.75/mt for forward delivery on June 30.

On June 29 and 30, the OPIS current vintage forward delivery WCA price fell below $52.45/mt, a low last observed March 11, 2025. The OPIS prompt price meanwhile dropped to its lowest assessment since $51.325/mt on March 12, 2025.

The OPIS WCA V26 prompt delivery price June 30 sank more than $25/mt from an all-time high assessment of $77.225/mt on Jan. 6.

On July 1, OPIS assessed the WCA V26 June 2026 price at $52.32/mt and the WCA V26 December 2026 price at $53.50/mt.

Prices declined sharply on June 23 after the Washington state Department of Ecology announced a linkage agreement signing scheduled for two days later. The OPIS WCA V26 June 2026 price decreased $6.05/mt over three consecutive sessions from June 22-25.

Ecology joined the California Air Resources Board and Quebec Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte contre les changements climatiques in signing the linkage agreement June 25. Regulators at all three jurisdictions are aiming to unite their programs in 2027.

“This is the type of collaboration we need to reduce emissions at a lower cost and capitalize on the growing demand for clean energy so that we can create prosperous and resilient communities for decades to come,” Gov. Bob Ferguson said during a press conference June 25.

Washington state announced its intent to join markets with California and Quebec in 2023. Ecology staff said they would adopt rule changes by the end of September 2026 to facilitate linkage. The three jurisdictions shared a draft agreement earlier this year, ahead of a public comment period and public signing this week.

“Signing this agreement is an important milestone as each government works through our own processes to enable linkage — a move that can help boost climate outcomes, enhance compliance flexibility and deliver even greater benefits to our residents,” CARB chair Lauren Sanchez said in a press release.

OPIS assessed the WCA V26 prompt delivery price at $51.95/mt the day regulators signed the linkage agreement.

WCA prices also slid in early June after Ecology proposed significantly expanding allowance supply at the Q4 2026 quarterly allowance auction and at allowance price containment reserve auctions in 2027.

Ecology staff proposed the addition of 5.6 million WCAs to the December 2026 quarterly auction budget, according to a market notice published June 11. The larger supply of V23-V26 allowances for sale in 2026 comes as part of adjusted allowance caps through 2050 included in state legislation House Bill 1975 passed in 2025. Entities will be able to use these allowances for compliance at the upcoming November 2027 deadline.

Staff also suggested moving around 14 million APCR allowances into availability for 2027, pulling these volumes from cap-adjusted annual budgets from 2023-30 and 2031-40 annual budgets. Ecology said these proposals will be finalized during the current 2026 linkage and program updates rulemaking.

“All cap-adjusted allowances with vintage 2023-2026 and APCR allowances created by the expansion of annual allowance budgets as a result of HB 1975 can potentially enter the market and be used by compliance entities to meet quadrennial compliance obligations on Nov. 1, 2027,” according to Ecology.

The cap-adjusted allowance announcement came a day after Ecology staff published results for the Q2 auction, which sold out and settled at $64.56/mt for the current portion, below the 2026 APCR trigger of $65.26/mt.

WCA secondary market prompt prices fell $7.85/mt over three consecutive sessions from June 10-12 following the auction results and market notice on incoming supply changes. OPIS assessed the WCA V26 prompt delivery at $56.90/mt on June 12.

V27 and V28 WCA prices in June also decreased on weaker traded values following progress on the linkage agreement and program rulemaking.

OPIS assessed the WCA V27 December 2026 price at $39.50/mt on June 12, down from $46.40/mt the day before. The ICE WCA V27 December 2026 price fell to $38/mt by the end of June.

For most of the first half of 2026, OPIS consistently assessed V27 WCA prices above $40/mt, with a low assessment of $43/mt for V27 December 2026 on March 12.

The WCA V28 December 2026 price also declined in June following the signing between the three jurisdictions. OPIS assessed the WCA V28 December 2026 price at $35.50/mt on June 23 and at $33.875/mt on June 25.

No effective linkage date has been set, but Ecology has repeatedly expressed a goal to link markets prior to the upcoming Nov. 1, 2027 compliance deadline for state compliance entities. Ecology staff will inform market participants of the effective linkage date at least 90 days in advance of the date, according to a recently proposed Climate Commitment Act rule this month.

“California and Québec continue to work through their own processes as well … we expect to begin operating a linked market in 2027,” Ecology announced on June 23.

When linked, entities in the three jurisdictions would have access to allowances originating from California, Quebec or Washington — and ability to trade them freely.

“Upon the effective date determined by Ecology, Ecology will begin to accept compliance instruments issued by any linked jurisdiction to meet a compliance obligation … and Ecology will allow compliance instruments issued by Ecology to be used to meet a regulatory obligation in a linked jurisdiction,” according to the Ecology linkage rule proposal.